Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4602)	6/16/1998 9:14:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

*"In terms of corporate profits, Cohen said she is still expecting profit growth of five to six percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 companies ''even if Asia stays extremely weak''.* Zeev, I'm glad you brought up Q2 projected profit growth. I was doing some more thinking about Abby's statement, the more I thought, the less sense it made. I have to assume Abby was referring to, year over year growth, bottom line profits for the S&P 500, to be 6%. That's not asking for a whole lot considering S&P 500 is selling at a PE of 24. Let's assume, Q1 was 1.5%. So we missed Q1 pretty badly (in order for the full year to have 6% growth, you have to hit 6% each quarter). Okay, so let's use the projected figure of 3.5% for Q2. Well that means if you take the Q1 shortfall of 4.5%(6%-1.5%), add it to Q2 shortfall of 2.5% (6%-3.5%), add it to 6%. So we have to make a whooping 13% Q3 growth to get back on track! (13%=4.5+2.5+6) If Q3 is under 6%, then in order for 6% yr. over yr. growth to be possible, you have to add all previous shortfalls up, add it to 6% and that will give you what Q4 has to be. Which would be pretty astronomical. So my big question is, How in the world does Abby really expect the S&P 500 to achieve year over year growth of 6% when Q1 and Q2 are so far down right off the bat? Am I not doing the math right, or does the Emperor have no clothes? Thanks, MikeM(From Florida)