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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H James Morris who wrote (6279)	6/16/1998 8:44:00 PM
From: zebraspot	Respond to of 164684

"You'll probably go broke underestimating the stupidity of the Amazon public." - P.T. Zebraspot

To: H James Morris who wrote (6279)	6/16/1998 10:59:00 PM
From: Tom D	Respond to of 164684

HJ, thanks for the kind words. I am glad you may have chosen to be influenced by me on one of the occasions when I got one right. I have repeatedly reminded my father to only listen to my investment advice when I am right. My father faxed me the current issue of Value Line investment survey, dated June 5. Of interest is the following statement: "Sales rose more than 30% from December to March, versus about 15% for Barnesandnoble.com, which is finding that a sizable off-line presence doesn't necessarily translate into on-line brand strength." I alluded to this in an early post with Bob Buschmann, in which I speculated that perhaps the street thinks AMZN is winning or has already won in its competition for market share with BKS. BKS wasn't promoting their website in any meaningful way in Q1 98. Value Line did not rank (& therefore did not formally recommend) AMZN because its been a public company for too short of a time. They generally wrote a positive presentation, with phrases such as "we think Amazon.com has very good growth prospects". No mention for impending competition from Bertlesmann. I wonder how much of the current valuation is based on the street's belief that AMZN has already won the battle over market share. Its probably meaningless to say the following, but my best investments have been counteremotional. When I am totally frustrated and angry that I bought a stock, it means its time to buy more. When I print out the graph to admire my acumen, it means its time to sell. I am particularly concerned when I become very confident that I am right, and want to bet the farm on my omniscience. I lost the farm last year. I would guess that, for the bears, the worst part of their frustration is that their case is twice as compelling now as it was three months ago. And now all the bulls are coming out of the woodwork to post on the thread. The problem at present, and even 3 months ago, was that you couldn't really recommend purchasing AMZN stock to a friend because the fundamentals are so putrid. (One friend is mad at me because I pointed AMZN out to him but was wishy-washy about recommending a purchase. Well, what if I had recommended it and it then fell 75% in 3 months, instead of doubling?). Its also an extremely risky short. A straddle would be a good strategy if the premiums were not so outrageous. In trying to figure out which way the stock is going, my focus will be on Relevant Knowledge's estimates of website visits, which, I am willing to bet, may indicate something about revenues. At this market valuation, I don't think the street will forgive even one quarter of disappointing revenues growth. I wonder if whats going on is that (insufficiency of data notwithstanding) the street thinks AMZN is clearly going to win the lion's share of etailing. So, that, for them, its a matter of trying to be the earliest to buy a bunch of WallMart stock. Best Regards, Tom D