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Technology Stocks : Nimbus CD International -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Carmine Cammarosano who wrote (1631)6/16/1998 11:41:00 PM
From: Jim Fraser  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1673
 
Well Carmine, I don't see it quite that way, nor does the street in many cases either. Yes past earnings are great but what is up the road is more important to the stock price in many cases then what is behind them. Take a look at internet related Companies...most make nil or have negative earnings but the stock price takes off because the future looks so bright. In Nimbus' case, I bought the stock simply because of DVD. I knew at the time the company makes most of its revenue on CD's and the product was slowing but it was an industry and company was in transition, and I was prepared for dull earnings until DVD arrived. I honestly felt that management saw the vision of DVD before the competition did. In my view the company today, right now, is in a better position to benefit from DVD then any other I know. The others are either involved in the hardware end (ie CUBE) or are such a big company that the success of DVD will do little to effect the bottom line. (Warner, etc) I still can't believe these same people would give Nimbus away at this point.

Well, so much for buy and hold.

After a few Merlots I put together two possible outcomes...you pick the winner before the news breaks tomorrow

First, the longshot: (Brace yourself, this is out there!)

1) Someone had hinted that the buyer was Carlton, a UK media group that has international expansion plans. (They are doing some sort of symposium with nimbus and others in september) Lets say they saw nimbus as a cheap take over at 11.50. Nimbus floats it past a few of the major investors and a one of them (a big one) finds the deal attractive.
Nimbus has to please this investor which has over 100 mil into the company and this guy says take the 11.5. Few others wish to sell, not after the 3+ years of DVD prep. In the days following the announcement that someone is interested in buying the company, no one else makes an offer which took the company by surprise.
This morning (tue) Bill Gates arrives at Nimbus HQ. (People have posted that Bill Gates was in town today and visited Nimbus, really!)
MS has a couple of contracts with Nimbus but Bill as he as stated several times in his predictions that he thinks DVDs will be huge and is really into the technology. Could it be that Nimbus try's to lure Bill to make an investment in Nimbus to satisfy the big investor who wants out, this way they can remain as an independent and squash the Carlton bid? I know the merlots have kicked in so this is really a stretch. But what the hell?

The favorite:

2) The board votes (in frustration) Wednesday that they take the 11.5 and retire early and give the shaft to the private investors.

I have always been a bit of a gambler (I bought the stock didn't I?)
so I am going with the long shot. I know, I know, I have really lost it, all credibility, whatever I had is now history! I have held this stock so long it is like it is part of my body. I just can't bring myself to sell at this stage of DVD, and I can't believe that L.F. wants to either.

11.5 will bring a small profit to me but I would have been alot better off with an index fund. I would have liked to hang on NMBS for awhile longer (at least through the new year) but as of now things look bleak. BTW, I saw today that Scott and Stringfellow the analyst that had the "strong buy" moved to "hold". This guy was more bullish on nimbus then I was...I know it it hard to believe but it was true.

Good luck to all of the folks here on this thread. I always enjoyed reading your opinion even if I seemed hostile towards your thoughts at times. I have always believed that it is the difference of opinions that brings moderation and the best of all outcomes.

Jim

P.S. I really don't know who the bidder is nor am I sure about Bill's visit to HQ. I am just echoing what I read elsewhere.