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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NucTrader who wrote (24262)	6/16/1998 9:05:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 95453

ok folks....here's a little doom & gloom on not only the SE Asia recovery but the big picture as well...and it ain't pretty. Message 4890352

To: NucTrader who wrote (24262)	6/16/1998 11:38:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

TCMS ... the enigma. Pretender or contender ? ...only time will tell. Is this one of the next high flyers in the patch with those accompanying 80-100% increases in revenues and earnings, or was it an over-hyped crash & burn IPO based on accounting/acquisition hocus-pocus ? The business plan makes sense; the niche is great - excepting that the shallow GOM where they specialize is the ''dead sea'' right now... my initial reaction was the selloff was due to a paniac/over-reaction to the soft jack-up market in the GOM; a baby thrown out with the bath water classic. Selling for less than book value, less than 1 times sales, had insider buying both last fall and this spring, hit analyst estimates - seemingly executing the gameplan very well, revenues up 80% + and on and on... but the market failed to respond positively; in fact their recent 40% +/- sell off is one of the deepest, quickest falls in the oil sector. The recent acquisitions of pipe laying barge and expansion of fabrication capacity would indicate an upcoming ramp up in revenues and earnings. Transocean/RIG who would have to be acknowledged as the deep water leader, gave TCMS a major contract (3500 ton mud pump modules) for work on their upcoming ''worlds largest deepwater drillship'' with 2 more to follow... have to give RIG the benefit of the doubt, of ''having a clue''... lots of fab yards in the world; FGII & Halter etc. They also must be pleased with TCMS's work, asTCMS is getting 2 more contracts from RIG ! 2 paws down from the ''DOG''; caninus maximus; specifically - why ? No way possible that this selloff, to this degree, is purely sector,crude price or GOM related - no possible way. This is either the single most misunderstood, over-sold, mis-priced company I've ever seen; or ''someone'' does know something rotten is buried in the woodpile... time will tell. With an initial IPO price of $14-$16 and a prior high of $28; all prior to the recent acquisitions and capacity increases - this has a very reasonable expectation of being a $28-$35 stock when the dust settles... think of the possibilities; buy 10,000 shares for less than $70K, margin it - to 20,000 shares. Oil sector returns to normal crude price enviroment, TCMS hits the estimates - prices rebound; now a $35 stock 6-9-12 months from now: 20,000 shares x $35 = $700,000.00 $700,000 - $70K original margin debt and 8% +/- margin interest for 6-12 months leaves alot of cashhhhhhh left over. Imagination is a dangerous thing... Will the real TCMS, please stand up... Slider