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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ming who wrote (230)	6/17/1998 8:52:00 AM
From: Still Rolling	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1301

I am posting the following on behalf of a non-member. Craig, I've been following the posts on Russia. I'm not a member of Silicon Investors so can't respond directly there. Maybe you can copy and paste my following message there if you'd like. I believe the situation in Russia is far more serious than just internal problems in Russia, ruble devaluation or a cash crisis. Hanging over the head of Russia is ASIA!!! The Asia crisis is primarily what caused the fall of the Russian equity market -- even though Russia is not exposed to Asia hardly at all. I invested heavily in Russian equities (LETRX) at the peak and continued on the way down each time it seemed to bottom, thinking an upswing would soon be coming. I was trying to buy my way out of the loss. Historically from looking at stocks I didn't think there would be such a great fall. But the knife doesn't seem to ever stop. Financially I think I've lost 1-2 years of my life due to believing in and investing in Russia. As I say this I still believe Russia will eventually come around but I'm tired of losing money. I'm in my early 30s and have no home yet I'm down almost $65K in Russia. I'm still evaluating the loss. Now I've just returned from spending the last six weeks in Asia, consisting of a trip to Hong Kong and another to Thailand. Vi is usually right on what he says and I enjoy his posts. But he is wrong about saying most bear markets last 1.5 years and that Asia should recover soon. There is NO sign of a bottom in Asia or of any recovery!!! How much lower this can drive Russian stocks down I can only guess. But let me say it again. There is NO sign of a bottom in Asia or of any recovery!!! The situation there worsens daily. They are in a full recession and there is a good chance Asia will go into a despression equal to the world depression of the 20s-30s. Japan accounts for 70% of Asian GDP. They are in a recession and financial conditions are said to be the worst they've been since World War II. The Yen keeps falling as do other Asian currencies. Billions of dollars are being spent to try to keep currency values up but it is ot working. It is only a matter of time before China devalues their currency. They are holding off to gain favor with the US. If they devalue in the next few weeks it is said this will cause a depression in Asia. If Japan continues to sink to the bottom this will also cause a depression. Everything in Asia is saying there is no bottom in sight. I used to think the recent Russian situation was related to turmoil in Indonesia. It was but that was only a small part of what is going on in Asia. The bottom line is Asia is NOT going to recover soon. It is going to get much worse. It is also going to stop the bull market in the US and possibly push us into a recession. We in America are like the people on Titanic -- Singing and partying as the ship is sinking. America has all but ignored the Asia crisis. It is extremely serious. Clinton and his gang rack their heads but have no answers on how to solve it. Money from Asia continues to pour into American bonds since this is considered the only safe haven. But due to all the money pouring in bond interest rates are very low and this money leaving Asia only hurts Asia more. I can now see how the world depression of the 20s-30s started and quickly affected all countries. I do not think it's a time to buy into Russia nor to assume the Asian crisis is over. Things in Asia are very serious. While there I read they are currently predicting it will take until 2000 until there are signs of a recovery in Asia. This assumes there will be no full melt down to depression. At this point I would put money in US money market funds or bonds and watch for this further melt down in Asia, which is also sure to affect Russia for the negative. I wish I could be more optomistic but this is what's happening in Asia. Brian R.