Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Buck who wrote (8795)	6/17/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: David	Respond to of 26039

Musings on IDX share price decline . . . We have experienced a significant decline in share price of about 40%, and it's only reasonable to try to determine why this happened, and if the price break is justified. As Brad has noted, we have also seen major declines in competitor's stocks, so this may reflect a flight out of biometric companies, or just a flight out of small cap techs in the face of the Asian crisis. In the case of IDX, the company has suffered a little earnings damage as a result of Asia last quarter. First and best basic reason for the decline is the failure not only to make earnings estimates last quarter, but the declaration of a loss. This has been followed this quarter by the failure to announce either of the slipped contracts that were supposed to be announced by now. It probably would be a good idea for the company to address this issue one way or the other -- if there is a deal or two done, tell us; if there isn't, tell us why. The other basic reason why IDX in particular may have suffered is the spate of bio-ID and software announcements coming out of the competition without being answered by IDX. In fact, the F3 technology is (modestly) overdue for introduction. It seems, as far as the market is concerned, that IDX is not going to be involved in bio-ID sales, other than the occasional overseas bank. Today, we see the company capitalized at about $150 million, which is less than a two to one P/S ratio, and approaching a 1/1 ratio on a year forward basis -- assuming a continuation of the past 60% revenue growth rate. The low price has even attracted takeover speculation from a bunch of lazy cyber-journalists who don't do their own research (sorry, I'll try to calm down). I don't think the story has changed, though. IDX is still doing absolutely great in the domestic AFIS tenprinter market, even if Japan and England weren't landed. I think we are seeing an acceleration in the overall market, and adoption of the TP-600 as standard equipment by local governments. This fact alone should put a floor on the share price that I think would be higher than the present price if not for the possibility of a DBII patent infringement loss. And there is an F3, and its specs indicate it will be quite competitive in the bio-ID area. I also take heart from the absence of any major network security sales deals by potential competitors. This is their moment of greatest opportunity. Either their products are not measuring up, or a number of potential customers are waiting on the IDX new product line. The analysts have predicted this quarter to be about $21 million in sales and $.03 in profits. I think that is quite low. I wouldn't be at all surprised with $25 million in sales (but we really need those 'slipped' deals) and significantly higher profits. I also think that some long shot, major bio-ID deal will come through next quarter. In this kind of market, with this kind of small stock, things can change for the better even faster than they have gone south. As I can scrape together a bit more cash, I will be buying again.

To: Buck who wrote (8795)	6/18/1998 12:30:00 AM
From: Night Writer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26039

Buck, Didn't replace laptop yet. Waiting for WIN98 end of month. Also thinking about replacing old shotgun. Belonged to my Father, and reliability is a real issue. It's so old it has a hammer on it, and is designed for the old wax shells. However, ex infantry VN Vets should not have modern weapons. They confuse us and we tend to do stupid things. So new shotgun is out. Heck, come and visit. Coffee in the morning, ice tea, or beer at night. We can compare this years market losses. NW