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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (20495)	6/17/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: akidron	Respond to of 70976

Teri' its very hard to stand in the way of a raging bull but at this moment I really think it's the thing to do. Driving the sector upside is the hope that we muddle through. To the downside is the reality that the market sucks.... But the market seldom finds reality all at once... and once it finds reality, it seldom bounces back all at once. Nothing is fixed, Taiwanese fabs, which I believe are among the best run, are working at 70% of existing capacity, which means that demand would have to increase around 35% just to bring utilization to the point it supports existing capacity... now what would happen to price if this was to occur.... The commoditization of CPU is continuing apace... with the sweet-spot of the consumer PC market marching towards $500 and in the corporate market $1500.... And as for Japan.... thing do not right themselves... and a few day's of central bank yen support only delays the inevitable... the economy has to suffer the pain rationalization, before it can grow again....