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To: Kevin who wrote (46120)	6/17/1998 10:44:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Buy signal triggered, yesterday exchange2000.com My apologies for not posting it yesterday--reasons outside my control

To: Kevin who wrote (46120)	6/17/1998 8:02:00 PM
From: John Lacelle	Respond to of 58727

Kevin, My overall bearishness comes from the fact that the economy has never been quite the Cinderella story that many make it out to be. In America, there is so much credit running around I think that we have managed to avoid the problems that blew out Asia. Yet the problems persist that there is lots of price pressure on manufacturing. The world is overproducing right now and in order for sales to be made, prices have to be cut again and again. This is not good for profit margins. Consider that the S and P 500 P/E ratio has been about 10 for the last 80 years but has climbed to almost 28 this past year. The dividend yield has fallen to nothing. Some people don't seem to care, or they say "this time its different". I say that things are the same, its just that so many people are just pouring their money into US equities right now, there has got to be some upward momentum in the market. What I would really like to see is a careful analysis of how 401(k) money inflows impact the overall market. How much buying pressure does it take for support? How much selling pressure could force down the market? My overall gut feeling is to stay away from margin, keep plenty of cash on hand, avoid getting greedy. I could go on and on with evidence that the US economy is about to take a hit but I'll leave that to other people to figure out when. -John