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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1911)6/17/1998 11:47:00 AM
From: Ron Bower  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2951
 
Mike,

The report on the wire now is that the US was supporting 'in cooperation with the Bank of Japan". Apparently both have started buying yen and supporting at the 137.5 level.

Better late than never.

FWIW,
Ron



To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1911)6/17/1998 1:32:00 PM
From: RealMuLan  Respond to of 2951
 
<<I wonder if it's a coincidental that China was seriously threatening to devalue, and the US steps up to the plate and props up the yen?>>
I don't think this is a coincidence. This is exactly one major reason for the intervene. I read some people on SI were screaming that the US government has sold its own people. I think these people have no slightest idea what the consequence would be if China is forced to devalue its currency now. The answer? a world-wide recession.

<<They spent $20 billion in a failed attempt a month ago to boost the yen.>>
I heard from CNBC, Japan sold about $10 billions a month ago, and George Soros himself bought about half of them. So I am not sure where your figure come from.

<< I wonder how much the US intervened last couple of days?>>
The following is from Yahoo site:

CHRIS FURNESS, SENIOR MARKET STRATEGIST, 4CAST

''If the U.S. want to make this move stick, Rubin has to be explicit and say that this is a complete policy change. The Fed have let it be known to banks that they want the world to know what they've done. Estimates at this stage are that they have sold at least $2 billion against the yen -- intervention is thus significant.''

Full text can be found:
biz.yahoo.com

Here is another link about the US-Japan move on forex.
biz.yahoo.com

So I think the importance is not how much US has sold, it is a message sent to the speculators like Soros.



To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1911)6/18/1998 1:05:00 AM
From: Tom  Respond to of 2951
 
Mike,...

-I wonder if it's a coincidental that China was seriously threatening to devalue, and the US steps up to the plate.

No coincidence. Devaluing the yuan would put into motion all types of de-stabilising elements throughout the world economy.

-But after that, who will?

The U.S. has plenty of $$$ to back-up its policies. Everyone knows it.

-I remember the US not having huge amounts of reserves to do this.

Correct. But the U.S. has an abundance of hard assets which they can both move and appreciate nearly at will.

-Unlike Japan, who I recall as having large reserves. Japan has
somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 billion.


Roundly 200 billion, yes. Yen, which has only been weakening / depreciating.

-Doesn't the US only have about $80 billion earmarked for intervention?

It's in the 70's. Can't recall off-hand. But roundly, yes.

-I'm not quite certain how the intervention process works, but I thought it was very limited in what the US can spend.

The language of their charter leaves nearly any instrument open for their use in intervening, including a variety of derivatives. The New York Fed also stores the means for intervening for about 60 other countries, and have done so since 1924.

They have some big bucks on Manhattan Island (:o

-If someone could enlighten me on how intervention works, I would appreciate it. I do understand they sell dollars and buy yen. That part is straight forwards. But where does the pool of dollars come from? That's what I don't understand.

They don't tell. And you're not permitted to audit.