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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ploni who wrote (10194)	6/17/1998 12:39:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Respond to of 18691

<<It seems a little silly that the market should suddenly be so predictable. Should we all go long until September, or hesitate lest the market surprises and crashes sooner?>> ****************************************** I think its a tad early to say correction over. Even today the semis are getting downgraded again. Estimates are coming down all over. We got treal oversold, and the Japanese yen deal is helping alot. I think its way too early to say Japan is fixed. there is more trouble lurking. And the internet stocks are way too high again. Dave

To: Ploni who wrote (10194)	6/17/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Charles from briefing.com another bearish view of KO ***************************************************** COCA-COLA CO. (KO) 80 1/2 +1 1/2. The interest in this beverage company continues to amaze us as for the second consecutive day Wall Street lowers estimates, but the stock just keeps moving along. Yesterday, Merrill Lynch trimmed estimates on this soft drink maker due to concerns over Asia and the stronger dollar trend. While the stock traded much lower during intraday trading, it only lost 5/16 of a point at the end of the day. Today, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter lowered estimates as well, but the stock has managed to rally, in light of the surge in the overall stock market. Acting on similar reasons as Merrill, Morgan Stanley lowered 1998 EPS from $1.60 to $1.58, keeping the firm's projections four cents below the current Wall Street consensus. At the same time, it shaved 1999 earnings projection from $1.87 to $1.84. The current consensus estimate for 1999 is $1.89 a share. While these reductions in earnings estimates are minor, they highlight the vulnerability earnings will have to a rising dollar. Unit case volume growth for 1998 is again expected to rise, but much less than last year's gain of 9%. And while Coke is not expected to generate any benefits from the sale of any bottling units this time around, the risk is that earnings will need to be clipped some more due to deteriorating market conditions in Asian and Latin America. Remarkably, the problems in overseas markets, currency or otherwise, are being overlooked by participants, especially institutional investors. Coke is still a darling on Wall Street even though the stock trades at multiples that are hard to justify for a non-growth company. And given the outlook for anemic unit case volume growth in 1998 and overall sales that are likely to be down due to currency translation problems, the multiples are even more outrageous. Yet, the stock continues to move up as institutions buy on dips.

To: Ploni who wrote (10194)	6/17/1998 10:26:00 PM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Charles, Although October is a favorite for crashes, it may come in Novemeber after the elections. Heard tonight that Mc Donalds is laying off 25% of their staff at the Oakbrook HQ's. This is their first layoffs ever. Kind of scary to learn that even flipping hamburgers is not a safe profession. Now for another topic in honor of the American Film Institutes film picks, JTC's top 10 films of all time: 10)Road Warrior 9) Testament 8) It's a Wonderful Life 7) The Fisher King 6) Star Wars 5) Raiders of the Lost Ark 4) Galopoli 3) Platoon 2) Schindlers List (A work of Art) 1) Shawshank Redemption ( Poetry on film)