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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sam who wrote (4509)	6/17/1998 4:17:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

couple of points on the May scrips from Sam's earlier post ... "Monthly script data looks great. NUMBERS ARE ROUNDED, as told to me via telephone call with PW. Viracept market share: 31.3%. Total scripts: about 48,000 (up 4.7%). New scripts: about 17,700 (up 5.3%). Refills: about 30,300 (up 4.4%)." 1 - Viracept market share as per IMS scrips continues to go up ... 2/98 29.7% 3/98 30.2% 4/98 31.0% 5/98 31.3% Since the number of scrips each month that go to PI naive patients just going on therapy is a small percentage of total scrips (of course "new" scrips at this point are meaningless in giving us this data), and we can assume there's a strong preference to keep a patient on their current PI, all things equal, we can infer from Viracept's market share going up each month, that either a) Viracept is getting a considerably higher share of the PI naive folks who are just going on a PI, or b) a considerably higher share of the PI-experienced folks switching PI's, or both. In either case, the data reinforces a conclusion that Viracept is emerging as the gold standard PI in current clinical practice ... although you have to tease that conclusion out of the data. 2 - And don't forget that since IMS scrips are only 2/3 of the US market, and the NPA (all channel) numbers show Viracept to have an even higher market share (by 1.0 - 1.5 additional %), Viracept is very close to over-taking Crixivan in all channel scrips, having overtaken them c. 10/97 in monthly revenue $. I'm sure the AGPH sales and marketing folks will enjoy watching MRK's guys in the rear view mirror, for a change ... Peter