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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (47998)	6/17/1998 2:21:00 PM
From: Reginald Middleton	Respond to of 176387

<Hi Reginald, is this your new website? Here's my suggestion for searching for market correlations. It think that you need to build a multiple regression model based on the 30 year long bond yield, consensus long-term growth estimates, the standard deviation of consensus long-term growth rates and current free cash flow.> Yes it is. I have performed studies on consensus estimates and estimates of individual brokers. The problem is that I would not be able to publish them due to copyright issues. Consensus estimates do not correlate well with actual market performance. There are a variety of reasons such as the use of mean instead of median numbers, the fact that analysts motives are not aligned with getting the numbers right in the first place, and the fact that earnings (unreconciled earnings as allowed by GAAP) often are imprecise measures of value. I considered the long bond and the 20 year note for a study, but that is also covered in depth with our corporate valuation methodologies. Free cash flow is a good proxy for the takeover value of a firm (for covering financing and investment activities), but is misleading when it comes to high growth companies. Cash is still king, but the cash flows must be reconciled and tracked closely, for growth must be financed with a high level of reinvestment, which tends to reduce net and free cash flows. A vanilla cash flow analysis will miss this. Let's start a valuation thread, I will populate it with as much info as I can.

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (47998)	6/17/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Cat: OTOT One of your fellow creatures is in trouble... Before.... web2.airmail.net After.... gemini.tntech.edu Sig

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (47998)	6/17/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Chuz,..Re:<<Thread to discuss value estimation>> Would this discussion be limited to those with financial degrees? I think it's fascinating and although couldn't contribute, would find such a site useful. When using long bond yield, how do you compensate for the artificially low yields brought about by 'flight to quality' buying? It obviously could go the other way although I can't think what could spring the yields back up to 6.5% as a high disturbance. (like we're having a low disturbance now). Obviously the market likes the yield back toward 5.75% since in the past couple of weeks when tyx has increased, S&P has rallied. This means to me that a rapidly falling rate is somewhat worrisome to stocks especially when supported by the strong $; however, when the $ goes back to more reasonable levels, this is obviously better for "Global" companies, therefore the S&P rallies. Also, I think we need the higher rates to attract continued buying, therefore liquidity. JMHO and Just curious Lee