Bigger, Faster, More 3-D: The Anatomy of the Coming PC's
No matter what personal computer you choose, no matter how carefully you shop, one thing is almost certain: in 90 days or less, a better, faster and cheaper computer will be available. The frantic pace of change in the computer industry guarantees that today's cutting-edge technology will be dull within two years.
So what does one do? Buy now and enjoy the brief season when your computer is at its prime? Or buy later, when you know you'll get a BFC (better faster cheaper) system? If historic trends continue, you'll probably save money by waiting, but at what cost in lost productivity and deferred enjoyment?
The decision becomes a little easier if you know what technical advances are coming in months ahead. Then you can assess whether the advances are compelling enough to warrant waiting, or are candidates for upgrading down the road. Computer makers already know what they will be selling later this year and have a good idea of what will be coming in 1999.
Now you can, too.
MICROPROCESSORS
More Speed on the Way
Today's dream machine is based on an Intel Pentium II chip revved to 400 megahertz. By the time Santa starts getting letters this year, they will include requests for Intel's even faster chip, the 450-megahertz Pentium II.
Next year will bring a 500-megahertz Pentium II chip from Intel called Katmai, which will take the so-called MMX multimedia extensions to a new level. People interested in having the best machine for playing Incoming, the season's hottest new game, will want to wait until the Katmai chips arrive after the holidays.
Intel's goal is to drive the industry to adopt ever faster and more powerful chips, replacing Pentium chips with Pentium II's. But consumers are also demanding less expensive personal computers that sell for under $1,000. Intel's rivals, including Advanced Micro Devices (A.M.D.), Cyrix and Integrated Device Technology, have all produced rival chips that provide more bang for the buck than Intel's at the low end. I.B.M. and Compaq chose A.M.D.'s chips instead of Intel's for their consumer computers, for example.
To meet the challenge on the low end, Intel introduced a stripped-down version of its Pentium II chip. The new chip, called the Celeron, was scorned by many major PC companies. But Intel recently announced a pair of improved Celeron chips, the 300-megahertz A chip and the Celeron 333, both of which should be in systems by the end of the year.
Apple's Power PC 750 G3 chip outperforms Intel chips at the same clock speed. Apple demonstrated a 400-megahertz version recently. But with Apple's market share hovering at 4 percent, no one is going to choose a Macintosh based on the processor alone. The next-generation G4 chips will be offered next year by Motorola.
3-D GRAPHICS
For a Big Price Tag, Big PC Visuals
This year, for the first time, high-end PC's will do a better job with games than even the impressive Sony Playstation. A $3,000, game-optimized PC, without a monitor, still costs about 20 times as much as the Playstation, of course, but at least the neighbors' kids won't sneer.
Realistic 3-D graphics are made possible by faster central processors, a new crop of plug-in cards that accelerate the display of graphics with a special processor and lots of video memory, and a new internal data system called the Accelerated Graphics Port, sort of an express lane for graphics. So far, the A.G.P. is limited to Pentium II systems, but rival chips are expected to match it later. By then, though, the standard will be Intel's A.G.P. 2X, already in some machines, which broadens the graphics pipeline.
While games and educational software are the primary beneficiaries of these advances, there will be benefits for Internet and business applications as well.
MEMORY
It's a Good Time For Adding RAM
A year ago, the mainstream computer had 16 megabytes of random access memory. Since then, the semiconductor industry has fallen on hard times. Prices for memory have plunged, and 32 MB to 48 MB of RAM is the current standard for entry-level machines. Barring a sudden shift in semiconductor capacity or demand, 64 MB of RAM is already common on midlevel machines, and it could become the new standard this year. It is not unusual to see consumers loading up with 128 MB or more. Adding more memory is one of the most cost-effective ways to improve system performance.
Memory chips feed the central processing unit with data and instructions to be processed. The problem is that microprocessor speeds have soared to 400 megahertz in recent years but the rest of the memory subsystem has not kept pace, so the main processor is almost always waiting for data to crunch.
To ease the bottleneck, most computers use a high-speed memory cache, but that is just a stopgap measure.
Earlier this year, Intel introduced a new chip set, called 440BX, that increases the speed limit between memory and processor to 100 megahertz, from 66 megahertz. It makes a big difference. Look for Synchronous D-RAM, or SD-RAM, which signifies the new bus.
Sometime next year an even faster system called Direct Rambus D-RAM promises to eliminate the bottleneck completely, allowing memory to work effectively at processor speeds. This will be a major breakthrough.
MONITORS
As Screens Get Bigger, Space Is an Issue
The improvement in graphics, along with the rise of the Internet, has fueled demand for larger monitors. A 17-inch monitor is rapidly becoming the standard size, although 15-inch models will continue to be popular on entry-level configurations. The trade-off, of course, is that traditionally, bigger monitors have hogged desk space; they are about as deep in inches as the screen size.
Two trends are emerging to offset that problem.
New "short-neck" picture tubes allow larger screens that don't take up more space. For example, a 19-inch short-neck monitor has a bigger viewable area, but the same depth, as a conventional 17-inch monitor.
For real space savings, well-heeled consumers are turning to liquid crystal display (L.C.D.) screens, which have several advantages over cathode-ray tube (CRT) displays. They are just a few inches deep (some are flat enough to hang on a wall), they don't flicker and thus are generally less stressful on the eyes, they weigh much less, and they emit no radiation. The big disadvantage is cost: flat-panel displays cost at least twice as much, and often several times more, than comparably sized CRT monitors. Analysts say flat-panel L.C.D.'s won't begin to displace tube monitors until the price difference is no more than 1.5 to 1.
That's going to be tough, because prices for CRT monitors are dropping fast, and quality is increasing. An Austin, Tex., company, iDOT, was selling 17-inch monitors for $199 recently if they were purchased with a computer system. And 19-inch monitors are now widely available for less than $1,000.
Another trend is the emergence of monitors that plug into the Universal Serial Bus (USB) port on newer computers, making set-up and configuration easier.
Farther ahead: superior gas plasma displays, 20 inches and larger, will begin to show up at consumer-affordable prices in a couple of years. Some are available now for $3,500 and up.
PORTS
Features to Ease Peripheral Hookups
Most new PC's sold this year will come with at least one Universal Serial Bus port, and by next year USB ports will be ubiquitous. This is a good feature because -- in theory at least -- it eliminates the need to fiddle with interrupt settings and other esoterica when adding new peripheral devices like keyboards or scanners or printers. The peripheral has to be USB-compatible, too. There will still be the current PCI ports on new computers, so peripherals based on that standard will not be going obsolete.
The same cannot be said for the ancient ISA bus standard that has somehow survived since the first I.B.M. PC. This may be the last year that PC makers include an ISA slot.
Another bus system, officially called IEEE 1394 but popularly known as Firewire, will begin showing up on high-end systems this year. Firewire will eventually become the high-speed standard for connecting digital video cameras, VCR's, digital VCR's, cable modems, network cards and other peripherals that demand the highest bit-transfer rates.
HARD DISKS
From Megabytes to Gigabytes
It seems like only yesterday when hard disk capacity was measured in megabytes. Today gigabytes are the norm on new consumer PC's, typically 2 GB to 4 GB on entry-level machines. Because of other hardware limitations, most hard disks this year won't exceed about 8 GB, although some PC systems will use different tricks to hit 10 GB to 20 GB or more.
REMOVABLE STORAGE
Some New Choices for Keeping Data Safe
The familiar 3.5-inch, 1.44-MB diskette is past its prime. It will live on for years, just as 5.25-inch floppies lingered after the 3.5-inch drives first appeared, but new technologies will begin to replace it this year. People need more than 1.44 MB to store multimedia files, like those created with digital cameras.
Iomega's popular 100-megabyte Zip drive is one contender to replace the diskette, but it cannot work with existing diskettes, so it is not the ideal choice. Compaq and some others support a diskette-compatible format called LS-120, which crams 120 MB onto newer 3.5-inch disks. But Sony's HiFD, a 200-megabyte diskette drive scheduled to appear late this year, appears to be a strong contender.
Like the floppy disk, CD-ROM drives are also spinning down, to be replaced by some form of DVD. The top speed for CD-ROM today is 32X, but it is unlikely to go much higher.
CD-ROM's can store "only" 650 megabytes of data, while DVD-ROM can hold 4.7 GB. (DVD capacity is very likely to double next year.) Again, digital imaging is the grim reaper for CD-ROM. DVD is the future.
Second-generation (2X) DVD-ROM drives can be added to newer computers for less than $300. Avoid first-generation (1X) models. If feasible, wait for third-generation, read-and-write DVD drives in the fall, which include DVD+RW, DVD-R/W, and DVD-RAM.
SOUND SYSTEMS
'Positional 3-D Audio' Adds New Dimensions
Graphics aren't the only thing going 3-D. Most sound cards today offer 3-D audio, creating the impression that sounds are coming from all around the user. The new trend is "positional 3-D audio," which links the sound effects to the position of a moving object in a game. (As the race car passes you, the sound will go from back to front, for example.)
Naturally, you'll want new speakers to show off the sound. Microsoft's new Digital Sound System 80 (80 watts) coming out in the fall ($260) uses the USB port to bypass the audio card. Because the sound processing is done inside the speakers themselves instead of in the electronically noisy environment inside the computer, the new speakers eliminate noise and hiss and thus offer more realistic 3-D sound quality.
KEYBOARDS
Hit the Internet Button To Start Browsing
Even though most people still have 10 fingers and the typewriter keyboard layout has not changed much in a century, big changes are ahead for PC keyboards. Most notable is the addition of an Internet button, now offered by companies like Compaq on its Presario line. Hit the button, and the computer automatically opens an Internet connection (assuming the user has an Internet account) for quick access to E-mail, news and the Web -- even computer technical support.
Keyboard makers will be adding a variety of special-button solutions in the year ahead, not just for the Internet but also for other common tasks like bringing up a calendar or address book or controlling a CD audio player.
Ergonomic keyboards are becoming more common, too, to relieve wrist and hand stress. Microsoft -- remember when it was a software company? -- has a new Natural Keyboard Elite ($46) ergonomic keyboard that takes up less space than its predecessor. Datadesk has a $99 model with smaller keys to the center, larger keys on the outside.
JOYSTICKS AND MICE
Steering Wheel to Include Feedback
Last year the hot product was a "force feedback" joystick for playing games, adding the sensation of feel to games that used to rely on audio and visual cues. Later this year, Microsoft -- again -- will add force feedback to a new $210 steering wheel that can be used instead of a joystick for driving games. There will also be a $75 game control pad that allows users to steer by tipping the controller left and right, like driving a motorcycle.
Mice are being redesigned to be more comfortable in the hand, and new ones come with "wheels" on top that allow Web surfers to scroll sideways and up and down through pages without moving the mouse itself.
COST
For Bargain Seekers, a Bright Future
No matter how much personal computer prices fall, the most desirable one always seems to cost $4,000. This was true when the Apple II and I.B.M. PC first arrived, and it is true today. But for those who do not need the fastest or flashiest machine on the block, or who are on a tight budget, computing is getting cheaper all the time.
Last year, low-end computers reached $999. By Christmas this year, $599 may be the mark -- or even lower. (Monitor extra, as they say, and it probably won't have the 48 MB RAM needed to run Windows 98 effectively.) Today, $1,200 will buy a decent Pentium-class computer, keyboard and monitor system. The $1,000 barrier could fall later this year. |
