To: Garry R. who wrote (638 ) 6/17/1998 7:56:00 PM From: grayhairs Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1207
Garry, Thanks for your encouragement and WELCOME to this thread!! RE: "...I assume these are geological formations indictive of gas&oil. Can you suggest any online sources for explanation of these terms or could I impose to ask for a explanation???" You are correct. They are two well defined formations that exist in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. For more detail, I suggest you write to AGAT Laboratories, 3801 21 Street N.E., Calgary, Alberta and ask them to mail you a copy of their "Table of Formations, Alberta". Their LARGE table provides geological formation names, shows where the formations occur relative to each other vertically, and illustrates some of the differences that occur in different regions across Alberta. Sorry, but I know of nothing that exists on-line and AGAT's table is too large for me to copy and post. RE: "One of the sister had hoped to find a 2 TCF reserve...any geusses do what they might have actually found??" They might have found 2 TCF, but they HAVEN'T YET PROVEN IT UP!!! That is what they are now trying to do with the well completion and testing -- Prove up reserves and get the well ready for production. Now, having said that, I do expect that in only ~35 days (7 more days of test production then 21 days of pressure buildup and then 7 days for data prep and analysis), they will have successfully converted "the glint in a geologist's eye" into a PROVEN Swan Hills (???) reserve of something in the range of 50 - 100 BCF. My best "guess" is ~70 BCF. And, before the current completion work even started, Holton had stated at a recent SEPAC sponsored event that the well had at least 14 BCF of PROVEN reserve (that had to have been shallow uphole gas). So, I think THIS VERY FIRST WELL BY ITSELF HAS A REALISTIC SHOT AT PROVING UP ~85 BCF (at $0.75/mcf for gas in the ground value that's a $65 MM prize)!!! Not too bad at all. For TKE that's ~$2.00/share. And, it MIGHT also add probable reserves 3 times as large (that's another 255 BCF and $95MM value!!!!). For TKE that's another ~$3.00/share. Now, on a play like Strachan each followup well drilled also has a realistic shot of adding/converting 340 BCF at a time. So, it really wouldn't take all that long to get up to that 2 TCF level that our sister was hoping to find, would it?? As an aside, let's arbitrarily assume that today there are 5 sections of land available for acquisition on this Strachan play. Using my "scoping type numbers" that land could be worth something in the order of $300 MM!!! Does everyone understand why Apache invoked and will for some time likely continue the tight-hole status??? Do we all understand why they are reluctant to show us the goods??? Later, grayhairs P.S.-- One of the reasons that I have been accumulating and not trading TKE is that cursed tight hole status. I would really hate like hell to short term trade out of this stock and return from lunch only to find the stock halted. I can NOT reliably predict when the tight hole status may be lifted. It could be tomorrow if the last piece of "desirable" land on the play is "tied up" then. It may not be for 11 months. But, whenever it does get lifted, we WILL see the sisters all halted, there WILL be press releases, and we WILL see HUGE gaps on all the Strachan sisters!! I won't take the risk of not being in TKE on that day. JUST MY OPINION \ APPROACH, OF COURSE.