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Technology Stocks : 2000 Date-Change Problem: Scam, Hype, Hoax, Fraud -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Woas who wrote (794)	6/22/1998 12:31:00 PM
From: Loren	Respond to of 1361

You guys who think this is all a hoax or a conspiracy are incredible... I worked as a programmer in my early career, back in the early 80's when we certainly didn't think about the turn of the century. We (my group) wrote Fortran routines that definitely would blow up in Y2000. Not because we hated our company, or wanted job security, but simply because we weren't thinking ahead enough. Now, the code we wrote 15 years ago is either not in service anymore, or has been fixed. But if it had gone unnoticed and/or unfixed, it would have shut down our plant, AND upset the local power grid. Now stay with me a moment: We generate over 40 MW of power, at a power factor of nearly unity (1). This means we generate almost all the MW we need, and import our needed VARS across the tie. VARS are the 'imaginary' portion of the complex number MVA (mega volt-amperes, you don't think that VARS are a hoax too, do you???). (Now, time out... if you don't understand the paragraph above, it is quite possible you are way over your head while discussing the Y2K issues.) Ok... now, we are just one plant, albeit a large wood pulp plant. But take our situation and multiply it by a gigantic number (I know we weren't the only dumb programmers out there that did this, right?). And consider that MANY MANY plants are networked together through the power ties. The power companies can take a hit from a plant here or there that suddenly drops off the grid, or suddenly needs a lot of power, or suddenly shifts their power factor needs. But they can't take it if several do this at once. Have you ever studied the concepts of power generation/distribution? Electrical equipment just wasn't build to withstand jolts of that magnitude. Power companies will go down, given enough reason to, EVEN IF THEY'VE FIXED ALL THEIR Y2K PROBLEMS.... I agree that we shouldn't cry, 'the sky is falling'... But calling this issue a hoax or a conspiracy is ludicrous... and about as negligent as I've ever seen. You have set yourself up in a position to influence/counsel others. Be careful what you tell people... they may just listen to you! Loren