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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ms. X who wrote (3834)	6/17/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34818

okay I went back to one of eric's posts about the patterns that make up each of these "definitions" so what is the significance of the Bullish Percent now Bear Confirmed If there is a post about it ...save your time and just send me to it.... thanks

To: Ms. X who wrote (3834)	6/18/1998 11:06:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34818

P&F Madness, >Bullish percent now Bear Confirmed. Optional Bullish percent - Bear Confirmed down over 6%. 10 week moving average reverses back down and breaks a double bottom.High Low index down 2%.< Jan, I have noticed that if we wait until a sector and or specific stock reverses up from a column of "o's" to "x's" that we may have missed the bottom of the sector and or specific stock. For example, take Semi's and AMAT within it. The bpsemi is now at 15.2 with previous Semi's sector lows being at 20% in Aug. '95, 16% in Jan '96, 12% in July '96, and 16% in '97, and 15.70% on 6/16/98. The 10week moving average hit its lows in July '96 at 20%, April '97 at 24% and at 26% on 6/16/98. AMAt was at it's lows in July '96 at DW 22%, 26% in Dec. '97 and again last week a $26 in June '98. AMAT has reversed up to $29 and is holding in the 3 point noise range from $29-26. When I look at the upside down loss in comparison with the upside potential gain to $100 for AMAT in a couple of years I wonder if we wait for the sector to reverse up then AMAT and other Semi stock will have moved up even further with us not having caught the stock at its bottom. I have the gut feeling that AMAT prior to July option Friday will have bottomed with the stock moving up thereafter along with the Sector. There just, IMO, not much more movement to be made in the sector moving lower especially after Options day in July. Why wait to invest in the sector at this point? Is the potential there to lose more than what we have to gain at these lows. What are your thoughts? Just my $.02. Paul V.