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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (3625)	6/17/1998 9:07:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6565

James - Re: long term I don't see the U.S. hanging on to the Semi conductor lead. If you are talking 100 years, maybe. If you are talking 10 to 20 years, almost certainly the Asian countries aren't about to take over in the innovative semiconductor fields. There are several reasons for this: 1) Their culture is too consensus oriented, and as a consequence they aren't very good at innovation (but are very good at getting assembly lines to run very efficiently). I have friends who have worked over there (mainly Japan), and they say it is funny watching them try to design or debug by consensus. The Japanese are aware of this shortcoming, and are actually considering changes to their education system, but it is going to be quite a while before it takes hold. Also it isn't clear that such an improvement won't have negative consequences elsewhere. (An indicator of this cultural difference is in Nobel Prizes per capita. Japan has relatively few compared to the US of European countries.) 2)For the immediate future, the Asian companies are likely to have a problem finding capital for any breakthroughs. The reason for this is precisely because they were willing to pay any price for market share. Now they are indeed paying the price. Clark

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (3625)	6/18/1998 12:09:00 AM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6565

james-- NEC already tried to fight INTC with an x86 clone chip. they failed. sony cant give their computers away. sure, the potential exists for the japanese to discover new niches and exploit that into market leadership. however, as soon as they do, the americans will be close behind. japan has always been a knock off shop. HIT is doing so well with super H and everyone thinks that is just the best processor. its based on ARM technology if memory serves. the problem is, now taiwan and korea and every other little asian country is getting in on the game. BRANDING is as important as the price. one other thing..with IDTI, NSM and AMD in the x86 processor space, and fighting tooth and nail for marketshare, there isnt a lot of room left for the japanese. this shouldnt be a jingoistic thing though... its not about american vs. japanese or anyone else. its about good companies. good luck to all, trey