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To: Doug who wrote (11075)	6/17/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: Mark Finger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14631

>>Any clue when the next cycle of growth is expected.? I would say that there are two parts to the growth. In the past, the DBMS was primarily concerned with "simple" data and access. This led to OLTP for accounting and finance, and other simple management improvements through direct storage of data. The first new future trend will be based on the relationships of data rather than the fundamental data itself. By performing far more complex queries, we can find patterns that are not discernable just by looking at the data itself. Right now that is data warehousing, with such terms as data mining and OLAP. However, this trend is just in its infancy, and what this may look like 5 years from now may be quite different. This will start producing real revenues (and a lot of growth immediately) because this trend now has enough pioneers that have success stories for others to follow. The second will be the the new data types (DataBlades and offerings from other competitors). However, this is still 1-2 years from any real growth. That is not to say that current sales are not important, because the experience gained will be critical to the positioning when the sales really start, but there will not be the real heavy gains. I expect that the true engine sales for all ORDBMS engines (used as OR, not just R) may only be $100-150M this year, and maybe doubling next year. Real major growth as a significant portion of the overall $3B engine market is still some time away. Beyond that, there will be a hybrid or convergence of the future trends (relationships between the new data types) to explore, and that will be hard to perceive because the new data types and their direct uses are only now being used in basic applications. The growth from this category is 5-10 years away. Mark