Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (2817)	6/19/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: set	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

I'm beginning to think that this intervention, though it will likely contribute to recession, may alter existing trends in significant ways and avert calamity. here are the assumptions: near full employment has been a result of small business expansion across the board as they have taken advantage of favorable credit trends and the so called virtuous cycle. this has been the main source of inflationary concern. this intervention, if it succeeds in stabilizing japan, will weaken the dollar and stabilize raw material prices at higher levels. that, in turn, will be a non-specific pressure on all U.S. businesses. Such pressures generally favor leaders at the expense of smaller companies, so that even as wage pressure subsides, established leaders will also gain relative strength in market share and reach. in the mean time, raw material costs will stabilize somewhere below the levels of previous years. all in all it makes for a recession as smaller companies start failing or get merged away, but makes for a soft landing compared to what otherwise would have happened. the inflation threat is killed, though it would have killed itself along with everything else if it came to pass, and the deflation threat is reversed. is this insane? Shahar