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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ftth who wrote (1186)	6/19/1998 1:21:00 AM
From: HeyRainier	Respond to of 1720

[ AVID ] Dave, So with AVID, I guess you can see the kinds of technical deterioration I look for. I've seen it on many occasions, and it was nice to have the fundamentals somewhat confirm. There's no way I could have foretold the acquisition of the Microsoft subsidiary, but it would seem logical to go with the short though, if one believed the chart was reflecting negative information that wasn't disseminated to the general public (who knows how long the talks were going on with MSFT). Going short on a purely technical basis appears to be an action based on pure faith, one that assumes the wave you're following is based on private information that will only lead to accelerated weakness once that information becomes public. This leads to the problem I mentioned earlier about distinguishing from general market emotion or fundamentals. Without knowing the story, it becomes more difficult to make a decision with conviction. Regards, Rainier

To: ftth who wrote (1186)	6/19/1998 2:58:00 AM
From: HeyRainier	Respond to of 1720

[ Post ] I liked this post from Lzzrd King from his new site on AOL: ______________________________________________ Subject: Trading Date: Wed, Jun 17, 1998 20:51 EDT From: LzzrdKing Just thought I would give everyone an idea how I do things. Each night I go thru about 800 charts that I follow. Of those 800 I find no more than 40 that I like, and I put those into a real time monitor for the next day. I also determine entry points at that time. I set visual and audible alarms for each of those positions, and for the ones I like the best I set buy stops, just like I did today on VNWK and AFCI. Then when an alarm goes off, I determine whether I want to enter the position. For example I wanted to buy OATS only if it took out 31 1/4. When it did, my alarm went off, I hit the bid and was filled at 31 1/16. I think one thing I like to find the most is a reversal. I like to see a stock that has stopped going down, meaning it does not put in a lower low than the day before and/or has closed near the high of the day. You can see what I am talking about by looking at NSPR AFCI and VNWK. Another type of reversal I look for is a reversal off support. I look for areas of congestion or a moving average. ____________________________________________________

To: ftth who wrote (1186)	6/20/1998 2:04:00 PM
From: HeyRainier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1720

[ Analysts ] Dave, do you get the feeling sometimes that analysts' earnings projections are unreliable, or just plain stink? Why are there so many projections out there at are incongruent with the market's assessment of the company (via the stock price)? Hmm...thousands of market participants versus one individual's point of view. To add to that, that point of view can often be skewed towards a favorable rating, not because they actually think the company is going to earn more, but because they have a responsibility to try and earn that company's underwriting business. Why are analysts being paid such attractive sums of money when a number of them are so late to react to new developments? Only after a company has released an earnings warning will many analysts lower their earnings estimates. What value does that provide? By then, the stock is already down. ("Here's your paycheck. Good job on taking the initiative and lowering the estimates after management told everyone the bad news.") Just shaking my head at the lack of true initiative on the part of many analysts. Regards, Rainier