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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott ross who wrote (2011)	6/18/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

scott, Good questions, some answers, circa 19980617: 1) ...infrastructures will survive Y2K? Yes, roads and most bridges are Y2k compliant. For the most part, Y2k will not drop bombs on them. Most things will not blow up, they just might not operate or operate at normal levels. Oakies should not be a problem. :o) 2) ... even non-compliant utilities will be able to fashion acceptable workarounds by Y2K? Probably not. Actually, the most out-dated utilities will like have a better chance of dodging Y2k, as they would be less automated. However, if the plant relies on an external fuel source delivered via rail and the rail scheduling and switching system has many problems, even compliant plants will be no go. I would anticipate stockpiling of coal and oil. 3) ...reasonable to assume that most good businesses will be dealing with Y2K as simply a business opportunity... No, not unless they're a law firm. Many businesses will be scrambling with Y2k remediation and triage up to the last minute. Killing competitors would be short-sighted and counter-productive. Of course, this automatically means someone will attempt to do this. <g> Meanwhile, they will also have to somehow determine if their suppliers and customers are compliant. The older the company and the earlier it was automated, the greater their effort will be. i.e., most banks, insurance companies, utilities, and government agencies face a considerable effort. The newer tech companies have the greatest likelihood of fewer Y2k problems, as their systems are newer and more Y2k-ready. Of course, if the power is off and the transportation system is running at half capacity, it won't be of much help to be compliant, at least short term. Here are 3 questions for you: 1) Where do you think you will be 2000/01/01, and is it where you normally would be, apart from Y2k? What are your preparations/contingency plans for 2000/01/01, if any? 2) Do believe the global effect of non-compliance in other countries will be immaterial? Is it sufficient that the US is partly/mostly compliant while many other countries are compliant to lesser degrees? 3) Would you prefer the government come clean at some point between now and 2000/01/01 if things look shaky and devise a publicly-coordinated plan for food, fuel, and security? Or, would it better to minimize the overt tension level and just wait and see what happens, reacting ad hoc to whatever situation develops, if any? Why? And a bonus question: As of today, on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being a total non-event huge-waste-of-time and 10 being metaphysical certitude of a disaster of epic proportions, where do you rate Y2k? Extra credit: Do you have any first-hand experience with large, archaic, mission-critical software systems and/or pre-1995 embedded processors? Please feel free to reply privately if you'd rather not post publicly.