To: C Hudson who wrote (13370 ) 6/18/1998 12:22:00 AM From: ahhaha Respond to of 116764
We've had an unprecedented 20 years of non-bad times. Over this period of time people forget what it took to create the environment that enables such a long run of prosperity. Once the essentials are forgotten errors are made and the hard lessons are relearned by a new and younger group. In the past we had the business cycle that gave people a chance to slow down and take it easy. We don't have that anymore so there never is a repair period. The engine just goes faster and faster. Devices of human construction can spin out of control in spite of the concentrated efforts of everyone to prevent it. Where there is knowledge, there is ignorance. Maybe that's the true virtue of democracy. No one gets so much power from their knowledge such that when the ignorance comes calling, the entire society isn't pulled down. The fallout is hard to see. It is my assertion that we have a significant inflation problem that is being masked by worldwide circumstances. Without those circumstances we'd see and feel the price increases. There would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth. The FED would have to substantially raise rates and you'd feel the cold water then. Some of the more subtle factors of this inflation is falling corporate profitability, wealth creation and therefore elasticity relative to price increases, strikes and strike intensity, non-competitiveness against worldwide labor, economic indifference, a slowing of capital formation priority, the quiet increase in labor strikes of foreign countries where the people are learning the non-negotiable demands game, completely depressed commodity markets providing lots of price expansion room. It is often the case that economic dislocations create environments that sew the seeds of war. The US has made war a difficult alternative worldwide, but that fact didn't stop the Hindus from rattling the sabre. The current perceived world problem is not one that will lead to war near term. The fallout is only inflation, but inflation almost destroyed the US during the '70s. We don't have the same kind of environment as we had then, but actually the factors though they are different, are just as virulent.