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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: larry who wrote (10240)	6/18/1998 12:46:00 AM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Respond to of 18691

I see a crash of epic proportions Dow 2,000 in the next 18-24 months Even though I believe history repeats itself and humans have always been greedy I'm not a wave theorists. We're the largest debtor nation in the World. We need $ 200B - $ 300B of other countries money annually to fund our trade deficeits. We have a stock market that by every measure is at historic highs (lowest dividends, highest BV, on eof the highest PE). We havn't had a recession in 7 years. Our budget is barely balanced with 4.3% unemployment and we had a $ 90B Capital gain windfall last year. If the economy slows down, tax revenues drop, capital gains drop, rates rise and once again we're running $ 500B defeciets, people divert savings to less risky more liquid investments, inflows to stock funds decrease and outflows increase. All assets find their mean eventually. A 100% increase in stocks when wages and prices are up 9% over the last 3 years means somethings out of wack. It happened to RE in the 80's and will happen to stocks soon.