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Technology Stocks : VLSI Technology - Waiting for good news from NASDAQ !!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (3634)	6/18/1998 1:49:00 AM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6565

James - Relax. This is just a discussion. Ask yourself why nobody is making money. Ask yourself who isn't making money. You'll find that not only are the Americans not making money, but neither are the Asian companies. So much for the argument that America is about to be swallowed up by the Asians. Ok, so why is no one making money? Fleck tries to convince us that it a lack of demand, and then quotes revenues as the evidence (nothing like a little bit of circular reasoning!). But the reality is that in everything except PC's the unit growth is phenominal, even recently. So the reason for the slowed growth must be overcapacity, and that came about largely because the Asian countries spent capital recklessly, and they are now paying the piper. Nothing like a little economic cycle to drive out the reckless types. But that is a long way from saying that the technology boom is over. Also, it should be noted that this same type of argument was made in the US in the mid to late 80s, and then Japan had their first collapse due to over-extension. Clark PS Certain of Fleck's arguments do have a grain of truth, like the probability that eventually Dell and Compaq are likely to have stiff competition from Asia, precisely because technical innovation isn't really needed. But, again, that is very very different from what VLSI or Intel/AMD/NSC do. In general his arguments would be much better if he refrained from circular reasoning and made more arguments like the one about PC manufacturing.