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Technology Stocks : Cerprobe (CRPB) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James S. Anderson who wrote (166)	6/18/1998 3:20:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Respond to of 201

James, Management had said they expected next years' EPS to be about $1.40/share. This was at the annual meeting on 5/29/98. Suppose that might be somewhat less now, but still it represents a healthy PE going forward. Soon after the annual meeting, the second wave of Asian problems hit. I can't imagine management could have been able to predict the second Asian Flu and the resulting slowdown that occurred in the last few weeks as all of their customers probably abruptly held their purse strings tightly. However, these things can turn on a dime (almost). Finally, the U.S. has taken steps to prop up the yen! At this point, Treas. Sec. Rubin decided it is in the world's best interest to do so. Once confidence is restored, which I believe will happen, test probe buyers may resume their purchasing patterns. It is likely that there may be a surge in sales as they start to make orders that have been postponed lately. There is also the inevitable need for testing of the new chip designs this fall. The rapidity with which the semiconductor industry can turn around has always caught me off guard and I've often missed buying in at or even near the bottom. You said: <<Looking back at recent insider purchases, it seems that they wanted to buy-in before any company warning which would drive down price. >> Your statement seems to assume that they knew of a pending warning. IMO, they already did indicate that the recovery was slower than expected at the annual meeting. Yesterday was actually the second warning and I don't think they would have known about the magnitude of the slowdown earlier. However, if management chooses to buy shares AFTER yesterday's cautionary disclosures (assuming they were not false cautionary statements), it is not manipulation. It must be difficult for insiders to find the "right" time to buy their own shares because there are so many time periods in which they cannot buy (pre-earnings, pre-acquisition, quiet periods, etc.). At any rate, a lot of weak hands that have been flushed from the ranks of Cerprobe holders. An encouraging point is that institutional holders have accumulated as the stock has been dropping.

To: James S. Anderson who wrote (166)	6/23/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Respond to of 201

Greetings, James. Today seemed to be the first day in a while that CRPB has shown trading strength. Most of the trades executed at the ask. Volume is improving and the market makers "painted the tape" at the close with a small 500-share buy at $12-7/8. This is also the first sign in numerous trading days that the market makers are finally bullish. I would wager that CRPB will be back over $13 at some point tomorrow (assuming Asia doesn't crash on us overnight, of course!). CRPB's employee stock purchases will take place within the next week. With a higher degree of ownership, especially at these price levels, employees will have more significant vesting in the well-being of the company. ____________________________________________________________________ This is from CBS Marketwatch (pertaining to semiconductors): cbs.marketwatch.com "Technology stocks provided leadership on the way down, and now they're leading the Dow back up," said Scott Bleier, chief investment strategist at Prime Charter Ltd. Bleier expects the greatest leadership from blue-chip technology stocks and those groups that have taken the most lumps during the market's correction, like semiconductors. "We're beginning a summer rally," Bleier said. "I expect technology stocks to lead the Dow to 9200 by the end of the summer, and then trade sideways for a few months." What we're seeing is a snap-back reaction to some recent positive developments in the PC industry," said Russell Crabs, head of equity research for SoundView Financial Group. According to Crabs, chip making giant Intel (INTC) is currently experiencing shortages for certain components amid increased orders from computer manufacturers. Intel shares have been crushed recently under anxiety about overcapacity and pricing pressure. Crabs said PC vendors like Compaq (CPQ), Hewlett-Packard (HWP) and IBM (IBM) are resuming normal order patterns as their inventories return to manageable levels. ___________________________________________________________________

To: James S. Anderson who wrote (166)	7/10/1998 2:59:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 201

For those of us in the semiconductor related stocks it is interesting to read some of the old Silicon Investor posts (for AMAT, KLA, etc) during the semiconductor slump in the spring-summer of 1996. Then, correlate the posts with a chart of those stocks to see when the rebound occurred. Interestingly, the rebound in stock prices came as a surprise and it followed a time when industry was weathering news just like we have now. I also notice Taiwan Semiconductor announced lower sales this quarter, but sees an improvement by September. An interesting read on the CBS site (Kevin Marder writes the CBS daily "MarketWatch" page and he's usually got some good ideas): cbs.marketwatch.com Next week is the SEMICON convention in San Francisco and San Jose. CRPB will be at the "Test, Assembly & Packaging" portion of the convention next Wed-Fri. Surely there should be some announcements by various companies that may light a fire under this sector (early upbeat forward-looking statements, new chip designs, new alliances, etc.)

To: James S. Anderson who wrote (166)	7/17/1998 1:57:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 201

I have been doing further comparison between the 1996 semiconductor slump and the current slowdown and it is very interesting to see that the following similarities existed just before the upturn in August-September 1996: 1. Slump in semi sales - things began to look ugly. 2. Semi companies had just announced layoffs. 3. Semi companies were all saying they have "no clear picture of when a turnaround will be." Following is a link + text of a post (to the "SI Semi Equip Thread) from a guy who expressed precisely the same sentiment on August 28, 1996. Ironically, his post marked the bottom of the cycle and the bottom for stocks. Refer to the link to "BigCharts" for a 3-Year chart of AMAT showing that the end of August 1996 was indeed the bottom (preceeding a 400% rise in the following 12 months)! Interesting correlation -- makes me think that layoffs in the semi industry may be final indicators of a turnaround because companies become leaner after trimming out "dead wood" and thus quickly return to profitability as soon as order flow improves. ____________________________________________________________________ Bigcharts 3-Year chart of AMAT (you may have to paste this URL into your browser): chart5.bigcharts.com us&symb=amat&time=10&sid=614&sec=c&xyz=54848844&s=19621 www3.techstocks.com To: Cary Salsberg (505 ) From: Ramsey Su Wednesday, Aug 28 1996 9:21AM ET Reply # of 6310 Cary, recent developments are really ugly for this industry. Trying to be objective, I look for positives but really can't find any. What troubles me the most now is the fact that the companies are sending a clear message - WE DON'T HAVE A CLUE WHEN BUSINESS WILL BE GOOD AGAIN. AMAT is backing up that message with layoffs. Look at KLIC's recent PRs, terrible. Now LAM is laying off. Labor transition cost is extremely high. If these companies see any glimpse of hope within the next 3 to 6 months, I am sure they will hang on to trained labor, even if they just sit and chat all day. If it is just the temps, it is a different story but both AMAT and LAM are cutting into the core. I am still very confident that this group will make us a lot of money one day. The timing now may be 1998 or later. Ramsey ___________________________________________________________________