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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ratan lal who wrote (20662)	6/18/1998 12:38:00 PM
From: Byram	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

one thing about Ratan - He calls it like he sees it..no mixing of words... Byram EDIT... By the way Ratan - good call on your short yesterday.I hope your positions are always that good..

To: ratan lal who wrote (20662)	6/18/1998 2:11:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Ratan, Say its not soooo Surely this thread is not turning into a thread of: <born losers, and simple minded, one track idiots>

To: ratan lal who wrote (20662)	6/18/1998 2:40:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Ratan, >>I am sure that their opinion is that you are probably an simple minded, one track, idiot. Your right, any time I talk about how silly the majority of shorters are, they are bound to think I'm an idiot. To some extent I might be just for taking about it. <G> Jim P.S. Let us look at the most popular short fund going today, BEARX it started in 96 with a $9 NAV..it never exceeded that but for one brief span of a few days. It now sits with a NAV at 6.26 for a loss of $2.74 of it's original capitol..and on top of that it's now highly margin. So we have about a 30% loss in capital since it's inception. To get back to it's original position it must now gain 43% ..do you think the market is going to oblige by dropping 43% ANY TIME SOON. Chances are before that can happen he will have even less in his pot, and may well have to make a margin call. ---------------- To take it one more step, had he put the $9 in an S&P index fund it would now be about $14. So we have to look not only at what he lost in capital, but what he lost by being on the wrong side. That amounts to $7.74 or over 55% of what he would have had on the long side doing a no brainer. To make that up from were he is now, he must go up 123.6% , even if the market were to crash to zero he could not now meet the margin requirements to short enough stock to make what an index fund has made since his bright idea of being a short fund. He is considered a professional ? And BTW I bought BEARX one time not to long ago, at 6.09 and sold at 6.20 ..big deal but it was after I bought I found out about how he was margined..heaven help any one in it if he pushes his luck and get's called if the Market were to spike up hard. The risk in this fund is worse than going short the SPY , ( as long as you don't do it on margin ) When I figured that out I wrote off playing BEARX..or any other short fund. If I become convinced of a real hard down turn I'd short the SPY. Jim