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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (20565)	6/18/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Brian, > What is typically the low for a sector bottoming out and how long have you seen any sector stay at extremely low levels for extended periods of time? Thanks for your input, since I am TA ignorant.< No one can actually say how long or how low a stock will stay at the bottom since it depends on the market in general, sector rotation, and other projections. However, the previous low in 1996 was achieve the last of July at $21 5/8 (presplit) having dropped from a high of $60 somewhere in Nov/Dec. By Aug/Sept it had hit 27, by Nov. $40, Jan,'97-$49, and Feb-$55, May-$61, Aug '97-$108. Then, it fell quickly from Aug. 1997 reaching its bottom of DW $26 post split the last of Dec.'97 and again hit $26 a last week, 6/98. As indicated from above AMAT can move up very quickly. Just remember that the BTB #'s were poor when it started to move up. Compare the Bull percentage spreadsheet I posted with Gottfried BTB Charts and the data which I have posted. No one can predict when it will start moving up since none us predicted when AMAT would start to fall. I just want to be in AMAT when it starts to move up and again beat the institutional buyers which appear have bailed out only to have the small investors pick up the shares from $26-$28. Using highliter to connect the Bull percentage weeks I posted you can gather some idea how the sectors, market, leading indicators (10week, and bpoption) are telling us. We just have to be patience. Lester E., Kumar and others who have owned AMAT long than I have can probably add to my observations. Hope the above helps. Just my $.02. Paul V.