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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazlo Pierce who wrote (10281)	6/18/1998 6:09:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 18691

Dave, I guess the market likes to ignore any bad news on Internet stocks. IMO the huge advertising revenue model people expect from internet stocks is far from proven. AOL/YHOO/XCIT/LCOS combined market cap may be in the order of magnitude of the four TV networks combined (if they traded as individual issues). This is insane and will end. However I may be broke before this happens:-) Pancho

To: Lazlo Pierce who wrote (10281)	6/18/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

> The company blamed the gloomy forecast on the cost of a recent acquisition and the likelihood that revenue growth will slow. So much for the people who claim that YAHOO is worth its price becuase of the unlimited, ever-increasing growth. Like NSCP and IOM before them, it appears that growth is limited. Even in the internet. > The company also warned its operating expenses would increase significantly in the future as it expands sales and marketing efforts. So much for a "virtual business" which has the market locked up with its known brand name, and which can coast along on its laurels without any requirement for major investment to continue promoting growth. (The same case can be made for AMZN.) > Yahoo! cautioned that competition will likely continue to increase in the search and directory businesses. Even more of the same. They admit that their own brand name isn't enough, and that it may actually be relatively easy to compete? Amazing that's what us bears have been saying for a year. > In addition, the company expressed concern that its traffic could fluctuate as the two major browsers more tightly integrate search functions into their own products. Netscape Communications Corp. is in the midst of a major drive to increase traffic to its Netcenter site and Microsoft Corp. is currently developing its own search engine for Internet Explorer. Oh great. Not only do they have competition, they have Bill Gates trying to steal their market share. So lets see. In total they've got a shortfall for the year, slowing revenue growth, increasing expenses, and new competition including a guy who just WON'T lose and who could realistically afford to spend more than their entire market cap if he wanted to and that's what it took to beat them. NOT a good situation to be in. mg

To: Lazlo Pierce who wrote (10281)	6/18/1998 9:13:00 PM
From: Peter V	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Looks like our favorite stocks to marvel at (and swear at when they defy gravity for as long and as well as they have) seem to have deflated a bit today. The YHOO news is about damn time. THe $64,000 question is, what effect will the news have on the incredible internet high-fliers? Short-term blip, or the much-awaited run for the exits? I'll go out on a limb, with no basis for this wild ass guess, and say that AMZN will be back to 40 within a month. Anybody else want to throw their guess in here? Please, no analysis, AMZN is hopelessly overvalued, we all know it. Just a guess about the longer-term effect of IOM and YHOO getting hit tomorrow.