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To: Brad Rogers who wrote (20575)	6/18/1998 8:22:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

TXN sold the business on the cheap, with great terms. Shows how desperate they are to get rid of it. Mu gets some time, but if prices don't stabilize within 12 months, it goes over the edge, and takes a good chunk out of TXN in the process. Looks like TXN sold about 1.3 billion in dram in the past 12-15 months. Mu now controls this, therefore prices can stabliize....except for asia dumping. the bottom line is that this improves the capacity equation quite a bit, but there is sooo far to go. But there is no denying we are seeing the type of actions that occur in a trough. My opinion is that this makes it more likely that business turns within 12 months, and more consolidation in asia which is likely to occur, will speed things up even faster. I would stick with the opinion that this summer will be the bottom for stocks, and feel more sure of it, since consolidation is occurring now. The folks I look to for guidance are convinced that logic supply will be tighter by the end of the year, so dram consolidation like this is a very big deal.

To: Brad Rogers who wrote (20575)	6/18/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: stockycd	Respond to of 70976

I think this will be a rapid consolidation and bottom firming cycle. Everyone keeps screaming, "What about Asia?" or "We didn't have Asia in '96". Well, this is a cyclical industry. There would almost have to be worldwide chaos to destroy the cycle. We are at or near the bottom. I expected a MUCH greater selloff on KLIC and the others with the pre-announcement. The stability reassured me we are at the end. The only possible fly in the ointment would be the devaluation of the Chinese currency. This would only push a recovery out a couple of months and prolong the bottom. Good luck to all! CD

To: Brad Rogers who wrote (20575)	6/18/1998 9:03:00 PM
From: Fortinwit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Bullish? I think so. Brad, guess I'd tend to agree. It's certainly quite bullish for TXN... if they couldn't sell the unit, I expect arson would have been a good bet. NVLS? This will certainly test the tenor of the sector. Job-cuts are typically taken as a bullish sign in this phase of the cycle, IMO. If NVLS fails to rally, it would be a sign of further weakness to come. And has been posted elsewhere, KLIC not collapsing does reinforce the bullish view. When I saw the NVLS headline, I was hoping 'earnings shortfall', my puts would have been happier. Oh well... F.

To: Brad Rogers who wrote (20575)	6/18/1998 11:02:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

A quick comment, cause I've gotta run. If Novellus felt that a turn in the industry was imminent, I don't think they would be making a 10% "permanent" workforce reduction. But, my guess is still that we could see a bottom in the stocks sometime between July and October. I continue to believe that it will take awhile to "burn through" the overcapacity situation in both DRAMs and microprocessors. Did you see the earlier article on the number of excess DRAM fabs? And, on the foundry front, there have been reports recently that say the foundries in Taiwan are running at 70%... 30% idle capacity.