To: Broken_Clock who wrote (24372 ) 6/18/1998 8:46:00 PM From: Czechsinthemail Respond to of 95453
6/18/98 Weak Oil Prices Seen Undercutting U.N.-Iraq 'Oil-For-Food' Plan UNITED NATIONS -(Dow Jones)- Market forces that have battered crude oil prices could have a devastating impact on the expanded United Nations-Iraq "oil-for-food" program, U.N. officials said. Baghdad's new, U.N.-approved aid-distribution plan anticipates approximately $4.5 billion in total oil revenue over the 180-day phase that began May 30, with $3.1 billion earmarked for humanitarian aid. However, assuming a price of $10 per barrel and sustainable exports of 1.6 million barrels per day, Iraq will generate only $2.88 billion over six months. That is an increase of only $740 million over revenue realized in previous oil-for-food phases, and falls short of the additional $1.78 billion needed to fund the new aid plan. Even the delivery of $300 million worth of spare parts for Iraq's dilapidated oil infrastructure, the subject of a hotly debated U.N. Security Council resolution introduced Wednesday, is unlikely to significantly boost Iraqi exports over the next six months, industry analysts said. U.N. officials doubt the oil-for-food program can be implemented as planned, but have yet to confront how or where to cut in the event of a shortfall. "There is a concern that the plan may not implemented fully because of a possible shortfall in oil revenue," said a U.N. source. "We have to do our best under the present circumstances because we are not able to dictate oil revenues." Baghdad, which has characterized the oil-for-food program as a means to justify crippling U.N. economic sanctions on Iraq, has already stepped up criticism of the expanded program. In a statement released earlier this week, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry said the fourth phase of the program, "... will not be better than the previous phases, taking into consideration the sharp and continuous decline in oil prices." The statement, issued to back up Baghdad's threat to withdraw from the program if the council passes the spare-parts resolution with conditions considered onerous by Iraqi leaders, concludes that the program "...has failed in addressing the nutritional and health situation of the people of Iraq." In February, U.N. chief Kofi Annan raised Iraq's export ceiling from $2.14 billion over six months to $5.26 billion over six months. Under the program, Iraq is allowed to export limited amounts of oil for humanitarian relief around U.N. trade sanctions imposed in 1990 following the invasion of Kuwait. Annan acted to "prevent further deterioration of humanitarian conditions," affecting Iraqis living under the U.N.'s oil embargo. Initially, Baghdad said it could pump only $4 billion of oil over that time. Negotiations led to a distribution plan that earmarks $3.1 billion for humanitarian aid. That total anticipates $4.5 billion in oil revenue over six months since 34% of every oil-for-food dollar goes to a compensation fund for Gulf War victims and to cover program expenses. Iraq can sustain exports at about 1.6 million barrels per day, according to industry experts. This could be raised to 1.8 million or 1.9 million barrels a day by the end of the year if the spare parts are delivered, according to one analyst. However, even that increase won't bring oil revenue close to the target without a dramatic increase in prices, sources said. And, since the spare parts are likely to be funded through the proceeds of oil sales, there will be even less for food and medical supplies. "Right now, at today's prices, you would be lucky to get two and a half (billion dollars) total," said a U.N. source. In addition to the spare parts, the distribution plan anticipates dramatic increases in funding for food, water and sanitation, agriculture, electricity and education. It also includes $150 million in new funding for telecommunications improvements.