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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kurthend who wrote (2539)	6/18/1998 10:12:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

Kurt, Thanks for posting your conversation w/ INVX. Based on the comments, will be looking for some new HIF orders in September/October. The company mentioned that they expect to have the capacity in place for 5 mil HIF/wk by July/August in last cc. Thanks again for the post. Shane

To: Kurthend who wrote (2539)	6/19/1998 3:41:00 AM
From: Tom Simpson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

Kurt, I've said it before but its worth noting again. It is real popular to cast this into an INVX vs HTCH thing because that makes a better and more entertaining story and fills some kind of psychological need in our culture. Trouble is, it can sure corrupt one's investment judgement. Having said that....JMO comments on your report. The HIF rate is right where we should expect it to be, pushing up towards 1 million a week. To get too much beyond that they have to start shipping to new customers and/or Seagate has to start gaining share instead of losing it. Weekly numbers are selected to fit PR. What counts is quarterly units. Its tougher to lie about those. If HTCH is actually at 2.4 million TSA last week that would be just hohum and it probably is. They are well behind in their ramp and there is no catchup in that number. If they don't hit 2.6 avg for this quarter, I'll be PO'd; and it looks like my wife is in for a rough July. That conventional shipments are up sequentially is not implausible to me. TDK/SAE, Maxtor, Samsung, Fujitsu, IBM, etc are moving lots of units, if at lower prices. We focus a bit too much on special trials and tribulations of SEG, WDC, QNTM, RDRT, APM, etc. Wires too may well hold their own after all this quarter. Haley better watch out he doesn't lose Doug who has developed so much unique expertise analyzing HTCH's TSA cost structure that they just might make him an offer to come down there and straighten things out. Sort of tit for tat exchange for those 5 engineers we heard about. You simply cannot assess the relative merits of these various head connection technologies simply on the basis of unit costs. You have to include assembly labor, assembly speed, yields, performance characteristics and a host of other things. If you come up with something for $3 a unit that takes out $2.50 in production costs, you can be sure the other fella with a $1.50 thingee which doesn't take out those costs is not going to beat you, half price or not. That is not to say these are the right numbers. Just that you don't get very far comparing apples to oranges. Shouldn't be beating up on Seagate. Without them HIF wouldn't have a chance. Like I said....JMO......best....tom

To: Kurthend who wrote (2539)	6/19/1998 11:56:00 AM
From: Randy Tidd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

> Just got off the phone with D. Keller. I had a limit order at > 10 1/8, but took it off earlier > today because I bought some TDFX and some > SPYG a few days ago - I'll put one back on INVX tomorrow (and buy > on margin). I just had to jump in here... buying a stock like INVX on margin is pure insanity! I wonder what in the world people are thinking. The stock is falling like a rock with new problems popping up every few weeks, and someone is going on margin for that?! I own some INVX and am planning on holding for the long term, but only as a small percentage of my portfolio and balanced with lots of cash and stable assets... I wonder how many tech-stock-related suicides there are each year? :-) $0.02, Randy