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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockycd who wrote (5916)	6/19/1998 1:43:00 AM
From: Matt Webster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Easy question: what kind of equipment does Micron use in its 0.21 and 0.18 processes? Matt

To: stockycd who wrote (5916)	6/19/1998 2:55:00 AM
From: Wes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

"Even if earnings fall through the floor for the next 2Q's, if the recovery comes into focus by late summer, all of the equips are going to explode." I'm of the impression that this downturn is lasting for a while, and we should not be expecting recovery to be come visible within the next few months. The semi industry seems to be weak across many key sectors. For example, memory (weak since early '96) is showing no signs of price stability, and even microprocessors (which had been strong in '96-97) is seeing weak demand (look at Intel). Everything, of course, is related Asia, which was to have made up most of the growth (especially for new capital equipment). The reality that the Asian situation is continuing unabated (and dragging other emerging markets down with it) supports the view that the high tech downturn will be with us for some time to come. I don't think that we should even dream about a recovery until the end of 1999. Even that's optimistic, because the Asian thing isn't a quick fix like say, Mexico. Asia is way bigger and requires way more help! We can expect a good long period of austerity there before they can start expanding their high-tech industries. Still, I would say that we got some really good values here in leading semi-equipment companies. Just be mindful that the upside potential will be limited for a least the next 18 months; there's certainly no danger of missing the boat on this one, and you may get even better bargains as the summer wears on. Hang tight, though, because when the next century comes, we will all be handsomely rewarded. Wes

To: stockycd who wrote (5916)	6/20/1998 9:35:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

<<Even if earnings fall through the floor for the next 2Q's, if the recovery comes into focus by late summer, all of the equips are going to explode. >> I can't disagree with you -- this certainly makes sense from a logical point of view -- but I would be careful. This has clearly been the street's thinking in early 1998, with all the recommendations, and it got punished. But KLIC's fall on a very-much expected warning about earnings makes me wonder if the market has fully anticipated the revenue shortfall in the near future. The reason the cycle keeps repeating itself is that the lessons are so severe that people just give up (causing the bottoms) or forget that it can go down (causing extreme tops).