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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (20581)	6/18/1998 11:23:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Eugene, Big Bucks, Gottfried, Teri, Tito, and others, Following is a post I made to the DW SI site, Point and Figure Charting. I would like you input. Included is Jan's DW's response at end. Thanks. Paul V. >Following is the SI post I had to DW's intern, P&F Madness, Jan. What are your thoughts? > >> P&F Madness, >Bullish percent now Bear Confirmed. Optional Bullish percent - Bear > Confirmed down over 6%. 10 week moving average reverses back down and breaks a > double bottom.High Low index down 2%.< > > Jan, I have noticed that if we wait until a sector and or specific stock reverses up from a > column of "o's" to "x's" that we may have missed the bottom of the sector and or specific > stock. > > For example, take Semi's and AMAT within it. The bpsemi is now at 15.2 with previous > Semi's sector lows being at 20% in Aug. '95, 16% in Jan '96, 12% in July '96, and 16% in > '97, and 15.70% on 6/16/98. The 10week moving average hit its lows in July '96 at 20%, > April '97 at 24% and at 26% on 6/16/98. > > AMAt was at it's lows in July '96 at DW 22%, 26% in Dec. '97 and again last week a $26 > in June '98. AMAT has reversed up to $29 and is holding in the 3 point noise range from > $29-26. > > When I look at the upside down loss in comparison with the upside potential gain to $100 > for AMAT in a couple of years I wonder if we wait for the sector to reverse up then > AMAT and other Semi stock will have moved up even further with us not having caught > the stock at its bottom. > > I have the gut feeling that AMAT prior to July option Friday will have bottomed with the > stock moving up thereafter along with the Sector. There just, IMO, not much more > movement to be made in the sector moving lower especially after Options day in July. Why > wait to invest in the sector at this point? Is the potential there to lose more than what we > have to gain at these lows. > > What are your thoughts? > > Just my $.02.< > > Paul V.< > To: Paul V. (3907 ) From: P&F-Madness Thursday, Jun 18 1998 11:20PM ET Reply # of 3909 > Hi Paul, You share a common thought and almost fear of most investors that they may "miss the boat" in waiting. There is no indicator or TA methodology that will interpret the "bottom" of a particular stock. Not that I know of. Point and Figure gets you pretty close. The point is not to loose money. Rather loose opportunity than money because another opportunity is right around the corner. How would you know that you had arrived at the bottom if you don't have a bounce off of it? Are you willing to risk being wrong at guessing where that bottom may be? What if you thought the bottom was at 35 and entered the position only to find out that the bottom turned out to be 12? The objective of Point and Figure is to alert you as to when demand is coming in and taking positions when things are more in your favor than not. What you are looking for is a crystal ball. Tom just wrote recently that he too is tempted to guess but finds sticking to the indicators in the long haul, proves to be the more profitable route. I myself have tried to guess only to kick myself miserably the next day. Not once have I done well second guessing the indicators, not once. Point and Figure will not get you in the bottom but it will tell you when it is OK to go. You will miss the bottom for sure but when you make your decision you will know it is solid. Don't try and guess how fast the train is coming down the tracks and if you can beat it. Wait for the red blinky lights to tell you when it is safe to cross. Best to you Paul ;-) Jan I am<