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Biotech / Medical : ArQule -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (241)	6/19/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Respond to of 399

Yet, somehow it got listed yesterday as "Coverage Initiated" Different analyst. I hope that we can get more information of his reasons. AHP-Monsanto merger disrupting the cash flow model of the business plan. Discounted cash flow model revised downward the price target. This was all reported on this thread yesterday. Chill out, it's only money.

To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (241)	6/19/1998 11:14:00 PM
From: jbershad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 399

Its the money delayed and the street expected too much from products. I hear there were shorts today. Triple exp. week. Volatile market. take your pick. It is a buy now. Jerry

To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (241)	6/23/1998 12:46:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 399

Dobe, you rang? Phew, 10 1/4. The downside isn't over. Every rally just gives the in-for-the-long-term institutions a chance to dump a little more. Well John, on review of the thread I noticed you boys are still mentioning me. I'm flattered. It was wise of you to admonish a prospect to review what I had said, so I will give you guys some more of my 30 years of dealing with H&Q and their insider racket. Fundamentally, I only will repeat what you recently said, There has never been a molecule produced by combinatorial chemistry that has entered clinical trials. There are a number of people who are still skeptical of this technology as a viable approach to drug discovery (Take the "ahaha" posts as an example). Technically, the stock is under pernicious distribution. Every rally is bad news. Today's downside didn't take out the major bottom, but it did bust through the yearly low. No doubt that will provoke a rally. Every trade analysis shows block sells of the order 5,000 shares. They are "get me out" sales. On Friday there was huge block swaps and one 115,000 share market order to buy which moved the market up 1/8. That means the marginal supply overhanging the market is huge. It also means that it's cat-and-mouse. The market makers have instructions from institutions to pull booked sales above on rally from market order. The price rises a little and then you see the market orders to sell and the market makers back away. This pure distribution won't stop until there is a downside gap on at least several million shares. A month ago I guessed this would be around 8 - 9, but it looks like that is too optimistic. As long as the current state persists without capitulation, the shares will continue to fall. It could go as low as 3. Sentimentally, you guys are getting more sober but you're still clinging to hope. Hope is a killer in this business even if you're in for the long term. The sentimental state is yet to see denouement. One indication of psychological capitulation is the disappearance of former brash bulls. That is in place. The telltale sign of disgust is seen when the determined bulls don't post. You don't get the final low until indifference and apathy set in and there are large temporal interstices in posting. You say, "This is ridiculous". You see value that others can't see. Thus, you are effectively asserting that many knowledgeable people don't know what you do. From where is your knowledge coming? The sellers have all kinds of chemists, bio-physicists, etc. working for them as do the buyers, but the buyers must be agreeing with the sellers about the prospects for this company, since they surely aren't stepping up to the plate at prices which several months ago you wouldn't have believed possible. Why not go back to early February and read what I said with the intent of looking at the company from my perspective? You may still totally disagree with me, but can you objectively say it is mistaken? Looks like I have an ever growing tide of experts who agree with what I said back then. I also said I was never all that bearish about the company, but I was bearish on its evaluation. Looks like I'm tending to disagree with all those experts again too. I suspect the shares are headed down to somewhere and will establish a base lasting several years. I say this based only on the form of selling since February 1. There have been few exceptions when a stock undergoes the deceitful distribution that this one has that it recovers quickly. I believe that is consistent with the fundamental story too. So I'm saying not to buy any more until the base is established and there is a fundamentally clear volume break-out.