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Technology Stocks : Etec Systems moving up -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry D who wrote (991)	6/19/1998 2:28:00 PM
From: Tradewell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1279

While ETEC is currently trading at a "stupid cheap" valuation, and remains a compelling secular story (demand for mask making equipment has never been stronger), value buyers are not yet ready to step in. They will at some point, and the stock will move up a lot and will do so very quickly, particularly when the momentum investors come back in (which they will). It's a great buy now, but near term, no one cares. That said, with $3.00 in EPS for calender '99, I doubt it goes much lower.

To: Henry D who wrote (991)	6/19/1998 3:32:00 PM
From: Sparky65	Respond to of 1279

Boy, if ETEC hit $25 that would be huge buy. Even if ETEC was to only earn $2 a share next year (EPS is at $2.83) with a PE of 20, your looking at $40 a share. You can try to guess the bottom like I did at $36 in Dec., only to see it go to $65. Or, you can not be greedy and buy it today at $29 where many would argue that the stock is already very cheap. Incidentally, It has passed its 12 month low ($30 1/2). Also, if Japan gets things in shape, which I believe they will then the semi stocks will rebound some and probably will rest for a little before the next big ride up which I believe will start late summer.

To: Henry D who wrote (991)	6/19/1998 11:07:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1279

Henry I am not an expert on ETEC . I do not have an intuitive feeling that developes from long term ownership. I have never owned ETEC however I have admired it as a top notch leading edge company. Many market gurus think tech stocks are going to zero - These extremely negative opinions do have a function in the market place as they create fear and lack of confidence.These are the primary driving forces that prompt investors to make tragic mistakes with their hard earned money. I THINK electronics is perhaps the most efficient industry in the world.This efficiency assures obsolescence - fast change and a relentless commitment to "continuous change". This industry has historically been plagued with cycles of overcapacity,followed by new superior technology (with great margins)and then predictably overcapacity again. In all of these cycles the bears rhetoric is the same,and at the bottom it is all the media will report.Reminds me of the don henley song called "dirty laundry" When all you hear is the blues - mark that moment - as a bottom is in the making. Key to this moment is a quote that I'll never forget(heard it in 96 july) Price does not make a bottom - time does. Not only does the stock of your favorite company have to get ridiculously cheap,but it has to anemically recover and then revisit the scary past lows.Sometimes the second bottom must go lower for a final shakeout. This price action is devastating - by design.It WILL Test your resolve! My best advice is study the FA of a stock - believe in your soul it is in a sector that has long term future growth (with high margins) ensure that they are debt free and lead in a niche that cannot be bypassed by new technology. Next I check the stock out on T.C.Worden charting service (available for less than 30.00 . Any stock I buy must be oversold stochastically (F2 key daily - 3 days - weekly ) It also must have an oversold MACD (F1 key daily and weekly) If it satifies those parameters I usually am too excited about the value and buy 10- 20 % too high. Most importantly as the stock bottoms around Time segmented volume must become more positive as the price drags thru the "time" period of a bottom . My dream of a perfect buy is to leverage my account at a historical low with TSV becoming positive. This is perfect timing - and I must tell you ive missed it always in my past efforts to buy the dips. I also will tell you it never really bothered me when I missed the botttom 3-5 points and benefited by a 200 -300 per cent rise. IMHO Etec is a great stock.: It is stochastically oversold /bottomed It is very close to being bottomed on a MACD basis-needs a little more time (days) It is ok for it to have an anemic rise and fall back - don't chase it Time segmented volume has not gotten positive - I think it needs more time with aty least one more shakeout in the next 90 days. The sector has so many questions and no leadership (at least in a price breakout basis) This is best supported by all the bad vibes being put out on INTEL. This is a leader that at cycle lows always gets badmouthed. In summary the time is close but there is still time.I am patient but weak and desirous of owning a lot of these dynamic companies. So buy on low balls dont get too leveraged and give it 18 months to make 200-400 percent. Just my humble opinion Bob