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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (11674)	6/19/1998 5:31:00 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

This is a post from Yahoo, I do not agree with it. However I post it here as a spark for some more debate. Malcolm dent claims to be an analyst in D.C. I cant verify it though PC Mall - The Mall With It All...For Less! Message Boards Help - Edit Public Profile - Personalize - Sign Out Top:Business and Finance:Stocks:Technology:Communications Equipment:QCOM (Qualcomm Inc) <- Previous Next -> Message 5587 of 5590 Reply A round of discussions... Malcolm_Dent (29/M/Washington, DC) Jun 19 1998 4:01PM EDT I've recently spoke with BT Alex. Brown analyst Brian Modoff and Bear Stearns analyst Alex Cena. To conclude: there are still many clouds ahead and way too many what-ifs -- I guess that's why we are all here pontificating those what-ifs. Regarding 3G. I've spoken to Nortel's wireless division, Cena and Modoff about this issue at length. Bottom line: (1) 3G standardization negotiations are unlikely to be settled before the end of the year; (2) that, in the current state of negotiations, a harmonized standard seems unlikely; (3) that commercialization of 3G, whatever the standard(s) may be, is unlikely before 2003; and (4) that, whatever the standard(s) may be, CDMA IRP royalties are more likely to decrease than remain at the 4% average fee. Modoff was suggesting below the 1% level. Regarding QC's infrastructure business. Both Cena and Modoff applaud QC's attempt to bid and set up CDMA-based wireless service wherever possible. Hey, if the market doesn't come to you, then you make a market for your product. It's a strategy that Motorola used successfully in the past. However, I get the sense that Nortel is moving away from reselling QC's base stations. From what I understand, NT was up in arms when QC was slow in installing its base stations for Sprint PCS. Regarding Pegaso. Excellent. But the system's infrastructure will not be enough to bring QC's infrastructure equipment to break even -- not even half way. Regarding the handsets. Modoff and Cena and in a previous conversation with Merrill's Ching, agree that Qualcomm is a poor manufacturer of them and lacks the management skill to boost margins. Modoff said that QC spends for manual manhours putting the phones together than Mot, Ericcy or Nok. On the brighter side, a better than expected 2H ramp up of the Q-Phone may be in the works. The highest estimated unit sales of the Q for the second was 300,000, which looks beatable. Regarding management. There is skeptisism among the analyst and institutional investors that Qualcomm can't pull through the numbers they say. Why? Because they never have. I do agree with this. When I'm on the quarterly investor call, I have never seen a company spend more time evading questions than answering them. When analysts que for questions, they line up 3 or 4 of them in the hopes that management answers one. Regarding QC as a takeover candidate. I wrote earlier that I thought Nortel would benefit the most from acquiring QC. After speaking with them, I truly don't think there's any thought of it there. In fact, it seems that NT wants to move away from QC. It also seem that NT is content on focusing at what it does best, TDMA. But speaking with Nortel, they said it wouldn't be surprising that a "non-traditional" telco supplier would be interest in acquiring QC. This topic was brought up again when I spoke with Modoff. It didn't seem surprising to him that that could happen. He mention Alcatel. I mention 3 Com or Cisco. Guys, these are just some topics and perspective I thought would be helpful to us in trying to hash out things on the QC/CDMA front. Food for thought. QCOM: Quote \| Profile \| Research This Is a Reply to: Msg 5585 by Clowy_amanda View Replies to this Message <- Previous Next -> Message 5587 of 5590 Reply Send instant messages and see when friends are online with Yahoo! Pager Go to: Start \| Most Recent \| Message List \| Message Number: Terms and Conditions Yahoo! is a trademark of Yahoo! Inc. Copyright c 1994-98 Yahoo! All Rights Reserved.

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (11674)	6/20/1998 8:11:00 AM
From: Jim Lurgio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Something more on 3-g. wirelessweek.com