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To: John Mansfield who wrote (18812)	6/19/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 31646

Gartner: 'ESP's providing fixes for non-IT embedded systems are relatively scarce... 'According to Kate Murphy, External Service Providers service analyst at Gartner Group, "External Service Providers (ESP's) with expertise and staff to provide inventory, analysis and fixes for non-information technology embedded systems is relatively scarce compared to the large number of service providers offering information technology-oriented year 2000 services. Partnerships between IT ESP's and embedded systems service providers can create integrated year 2000 services that address both the IT and non-IT year 2000 issues facing enterprises." year2000.com

To: John Mansfield who wrote (18812)	6/19/1998 4:48:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 31646

'THE ESTIMATED IMPACT OF THE YEAR 2000 PROBLEM IN THE UNITED STATES A SURVEY OF THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. YEAR 2000 GROUP RELEASED 21 APRIL 1998 Copyright (c) 1998 Bruce F. Webster Last revised 15 May 1998 'ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS The most obvious conclusion from the survey is that the overwhelming majority of the respondents believe that the United States will experience a significant economic impact from the Year 2000 issue. Correlating Table 1 and Table 2, we find the following: 84% believe that it will trigger at least a 20%+ drop in the stock market-over 1800 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, given its current levels-and some business bankruptcies. Two-thirds (66%) believe that it will cause at least an economic slowdown, a rise in unemployment, and some isolated social incidents. Over half (56%) believe that it will at the least result in a mild recession, isolated infrastructure and supply problems, and some runs on banks. One-third (34%) believe that it will at the least result in a strong recession, local social disruptions, and many business bankruptcies. One-fourth (26%) believe that in additional to all the above, the Y2K problem will at least result in political crises within the United States, regional supply and infrastructure disruptions, and regional social disruptions. One-tenth (10%) believe at least that the United States will suffer another depression (or worse), that financial markets will collapse, that the national infrastructure will be crippled, and that martial law will be declared in some local areas. ... In that light, it is clear that the United States faces potentially significant economic and social consequences from the Year 2000 problem. Therefore, appropriate steps must be taken by organizations-government, business, and social-at all levels to minimize those consequences and prepare for those contingencies that cannot be avoided. monumental.com

To: John Mansfield who wrote (18812)	6/19/1998 5:01:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

'Year 2000, June 8, 1998 How much will it cost to fix the year 2000 problem? Probably less than we've been hearing, wrote Paul A. Strassmann in his Computerworld column on May 18. Strassmann used first-quarter 1998 filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission to estimate that companies are budgeting only $50 billion to fix year 2000 troubles - a surprisingly low 8.3% of their annual information technology budgets. That column triggered an E-mail debate among other millennium experts, Leon A. Kappelman, Capers Jones and fellow columnist Ed Yourdon, who say the cost of fixing the problem will be much higher than Strassmann's projections. What follows is a virtual roundtable discussion on the subject: Leon A. Kappelman (University of North Texas and SIM Year 2000 Working Group): I find some of Strassmann's conclusions troubling. In a nutshell, the SEC data is weak due to off-Y2K-budget items (for example, upgrades, replacements) and underreporting errors (85% of corporations think their year 2000 estimates are too low [Newsweek, May 18]). As the Society of Information Management's Year 2000 Working Group points out in our new white paper, there is often an enormous disconnect between upper management (those who approve SEC paperwork) and the people running Y2K projects (those who answer the SIM study questionnaires). From what I've seen about these projects, I'd place my money on the project managers. And these project leaders tell us that their enterprises are spending about 38% of one year's IT operating budget dealing with their Y2K problems - and that that number only marginally includes embedded systems and desktop/PC problems. Strassmann: Before you place your trust in project managers, you need to be convinced that they have no conflict of interest in reporting higher year 2000 costs. Kappelman: Just like management may have a bias for reporting a lower one. The truth is somewhere in between, perhaps? Seems that both samples pose validity challenges. Strassmann: Arguing that "the truth is somewhere in between" does not recognize that the biases do not have equal validity. When I weigh the biases of project managers reporting to SIM and management reporting to the SEC, all I can say is that management may be held accountable for what they say. It becomes a matter of record and subject to litigation and liability suits. Project managers filling out SIM questionnaires cannot and would not ever be held accountable for what they say. Furthermore, the project managers claims remain anonymous, while SEC filings are on the public record and signed by a CFO. Kappelman: Agreed. Permit me to clarify: I didn't imply they were equal, else I would have said "in the middle" rather than "in between." Still, the decision of what one enterprise includes as a Y2K budget may be very different from the choice of another. In light of no standardized definitions for things such as "Y2K compliance" or "Y2K expense" and what I think is management's bias toward underreporting this figure, I suspect the SEC figures are on the low end of the scale. Capers Jones (chairman, Software Productivity Research): I've been studying estimating accuracy for more than 20 years. For large software project estimates, these are the approximate results from among our clients: Out of every 100 estimates, about 70 will be extremely optimistic, 25 will be within plus or minus 10%, and 5 will be conservative by more than 10%. ... idg.net