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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HH who wrote (2422)	6/19/1998 4:00:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

China has a hand biz.yahoo.com

To: HH who wrote (2422)	6/19/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 86076

Has anyone besides me begun to pay careful attention to what a reliable predictor of general market behavior the AMG Data Services mutual fund flow is? Now I know Joe G. thinks these figures are phony and that the outfit is full of charlatans, but I see no reason why they should not be doing their best to add up the figures and report how much money is moving in and out of various segments of the mutual fund market. I wish I had a more complete series on this, but there does seem to be a correlation. I am not arguing that there is a perfect cause-and-effect, but given that what drives the market is the ebb and flow of sentiment, these balances may reflect a general mood as well as actual money. If anyone cares to check, I am on record on the Kahuna thread as using this as a predictor, including the recovery early this week from the 200-point down day, and then the drop today. Although there was still a small net inflow last week, I don't think it's enough to hold up the market. I think the downtrend will continue next week, but I don't think it will be a catastrophic drop. That lies ahead somewhere. I look for maybe 150-200 total down for next Monday-Thursday. Then we'll look at the next set of figures. of course this presupposes that there is not a terrorist attack in lower Manhattan using a Hiroshima-sized explosion. Longer term, somewhere out there is a 4,000 point (at least) bear market, below what has already happened.