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Non-Tech : APCO Automobile Protection Company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Backlund who wrote (2234)	6/20/1998 12:22:00 AM
From: Phil Jacobson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3351

APCO's a great company. I wish it were otherwise but I think the stock ran ahead of itself and a lot of us on SI were fooled into thinking the price was just catching up with the fundamentals when in fact a lot of the run was simply momentum based. Now it looks like APCO's headed back to a long standing upward trend line that was in place from mid-97 to early 98. I'm doing nothing real scientific here but if this is what's happening then it appears that APCO needs to fall another point or so, then it will start rising again, but not very fast this time unless there are rapid changes in the company's immediate prospects...which could well happen and there's much more upside opportunity than downside risk on that count. But if the trend line is really where it's going I'd look for only a modest increase to 12 1/2 or so by October/November. This has been a real lesson in Investing 101 - ie, the strength of long term trends. As it stands I'm looking at a strong probability that I'm going to take a severe loss on a large pile of October 12 1/2 calls, and simply know that my long shares will eventually make up the difference...a painful but useful lesson. Would appreciate it if David or any of the other TA people could take a stab at this as well. Phil