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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Sphar who wrote (4687)	6/19/1998 10:13:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Michael, actually a lukewarm announcement might set up the rebound in Asia and our own summer rally. One scenario, I think might evolve is that indeed the market does not like the plan presented and Japan takes a blood bath of a 1000 points on the Nikkei Monday night, this is followed by the rest of the markets in Europe and the US gets one of its black Mondays. Tuesday everyone is still shaken(particularly if The Nikkei slips under 14,000) and could still be down (but most likely just down in the morning and turning back in the afternoon). Why? The Cavalry gets into rapid action. Seeing the response in the markets, Hashimoto and Sakakibara move into real action either Monday night or Tuesday night, setting up a reversal in these markets. For how long? About 4 to 6 weeks. It all fit with my turnips' scenario, a low no later than next Wed (which might have already have Tue this week) followed by a very nice summer rally and then the real troubles in Autumn. As for my friends the bears, even all this commotion and tribulations will not bring yet a bear market, providing that 8250 on the DOW is not breached on a closing basis. Too much liquidity sloshing around. Furthermore, there is always the possibility that Hashimoto will deliver the good this weekend. And I doubt the package has to be anything close to $365 billions (that figure is 10% of Japan's GDP, too large). Zeev