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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (20606)	6/19/1998 8:45:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 70976

Teri, I just re-read some of the recent news articles, including this one which had previously been posted. pubs.cmpnet.com One important item which I missed during the first read is the forum where this report came from. Is the actual message an industry conspiracy to tell each other not to jump the gun on 300mm? Isn't this the classic "prisoner dilemma" in game theory? (if no one sqeals, everyone is save, if one talks, then everyone gets busted) Because the lag time to so long for a fab to go from ground zero to actual production, it is virtually impossible to quietly gain a headstart against your competitors. If a semi producer is foolish enough to start, then others may be forced to follow or throw in the towel. What would that do to semi prices today if the industry knows there are plenty coming dn the pipeline. AMAT should start going up if we can sense that a bottom is near. When this group started heading up back in 1996, 1998 was supposed to be the boom year (per AMAT earnings report per Oct 96 qtr). As it turns out, they are way off the mark and the shareholders got punished. Is 1999, 2000 or 2001 the next boom year? If anyone has that answer, then we know when AMAT will be a buy. Ramsey

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (20606)	6/19/1998 8:46:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Teri, Yet another nail in the argument of a chip rally this year! When will the lid be nailed down enough to let this argument rest in peace? Now if the semi-mfg stocks would just roll over from loss of blood so we "vultures" (I mean investors) could just fly in and pick and choose whatever choice morsel that we wished. (Graphic and disgusting, I know but somehow poetic at the same time.) Survival of the fittest, smartest, and best financed. Even in times of chaos there are winners and losers. I plan on being a winner. 8^) Waiting patiently, BB