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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edmund Lee who wrote (13547)	6/19/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Alex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

Gold Mining Groups Cut Production Forecasts China to Surpass Canada in Gold Production? Gold producers have responded to the collapse in the metal's price to near 18-year lows by cutting 15m troy ounces, or 466.5 tonnes, from their planned production for the next three years. A year ago, miners contributing to the Washington-based Gold Institute's annual survey were forecasting world gold production would increase by an average of 3.6 per cent a year to total 88.2m ounces by 2000. Now they are predicting annual growth of only 1 per cent to 83.5m ounces in 2001. "This is in sharp contrast to growth rates in the 1980s, when production grew from 41m to 65m ounces, averaging more than 5 per cent a year," says the international industry association. More than 100 mining organisations from 70 countries contribute to the annual survey, supplying actual production data and projections. The biggest reduction in planned production is forecast for the US, where gold output last year reached a record 11.4m ounces. Last year, the US industry expected production to rise to 12.8m ounces by 2000. Now it is forecasting output will fall to 10.4m ounces in 2001 - a 9 per cent drop from 1997. Australian producers also had a record 1997, with output of 10m ounces, and have also altered their plans substantially. Last year, they predicted Australia's output would rise to 10.8m ounces by 2000, now they see a fall to 9.6m ounces by 2001, down 4 per cent from the 1997 total. Canada is now predicting an 8 per cent fall from 1997 to 2001. Last year, it expected to reach 5.9m ounces in 2000; it now predicts output of 4.98m ounces in 2001. One consequence is that China is forecast to overtake Canada to become the world's fourth largest gold producer in 1999 with a 12 per cent average increase in output, from 5m ounces in 1997 to 5.65m ounces. South Africa is set to keep its place as the world's biggest producer and seems determined to keep gold output near the 1997 level of 15.8m ounces. South African miners see output at 15.78m ounces in 2001. South Africa, the US and Australia together produced 47 per cent of the world's gold last year. If the predictions are correct, their collective share will drop to 43 per cent by 2001. Latin America and Asia, at present accounting for 21 per cent of production, are forecast to share 26 per cent by then. World Gold Mine Production 1997-2001 from the Gold Institute, 1112 16th Street, Suite 240, Washington DC 20036. $55 in the US and $65 elsewhere. Financial Times, June 19, 1998