Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jad who wrote (462)	6/20/1998 5:35:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Respond to of 1153

<<, prices have buckled under burdensome inventories.>> actually, current inventories are among the lowest they've been in over ten years. however, the time to market has increased significantly (and the costs have decreased) so that, in the minds of many market players, what would have been perceived as "low" inventories ten years ago is now perceived as not low, or, in your term "burdensome". current inventories would be considered low immediately if one or two large refineries were shut down. there are significantly more refineries today than there were ten years ago, and they are able to pump out the oil in larger quantities at a faster pace. such was not the case ten, fifteen years ago. the market believes they can survive on considerably lower inventories than in the past. "burdonsome" oil inventories are a current market assumption, but is not based necessarily on past inventory data. if this were 1974 with current inventories relativeto use we'd all be standing in line at the pump again. it's this inventory data which caught many traders off guard in adequately predicting the fall in the price of oil - it wasn't just Asia using 15% less along with warmer winters.