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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: studdog who wrote (5939)	6/20/1998 1:34:00 PM
From: Phantom Dialer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Does this fit the parameters? I am carefully trying to find the companies who's long term prospects combined with their short term-plight offer the best risk-reward ratios... The company (in the semi equip area) that I keep getting drawn to is Silicon Valley Group (SVGI) Here's why: 1.Zero Debt 2. Book Value of $18.04 The stock closed at $16 1/16th Friday, and hit a 52-week low this week (15.75) If you take a two year look I think the low for the past two years was $15 3. Price to Sales ratio is below .9 4. They have already announced days for shutdown and are doing a good job with cost containment 5. If you got to nasdaq.com and then under the news section for SVGI there is a really good interview wuth the CEO where he admits wven though times may be slow right now, its slow for everyone and he outlines an agressive growth strategy (his accent makes it tough though) You need Real Audio to listen to it 6. $6 in CASH I read an S&P report from last year where there was a rumor that Applied Materials was interested in acquiring the company but nothing ever happened. Looking at the above valuations with no debt and $6 cash wouldnt this make for a cheap acquisition? I am not sure how much lower the stock can theoretically go till it hits a true "floor" but even if you value this company at 1.5 sales and book you still get a stock price in the mid-high twenties... What also makes this an interesting scenario is what is the replacement value of a company this size? Surely this is not an internet company that just anyone can "build' overnite... What are the chances that some of the "big" fish will try to swallow some of the little fish during this decline in the industry...it seems to be happeneing everywhere else--banking, brokerage, oil, telcom, data networking?--maybe we'll see some mergers like the KLA-Tencor one from a while back... I also think that we are getting close to a bottom...I was looking to see Novellus' stock get hit a little harder but it was very resilient...I think this goes to show that there may not be that much bad news out there to knock these stocks lower... I am trying to stay away from the big cap names since if there are any takeovers the smaller cos will be the ones that get bought out, right? Any comments would be appreciated.... More later..

To: studdog who wrote (5939)	6/20/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: Fortinwit	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10921

Here are the weekly #'s. TICKER P/B Min P/S Min Price PBPrem PSPrem AGAI 0.39 0.4 0.20 0.20 1.88 -2.75 -2.04 AMAT 3.14 1.6 2.13 0.90 27.38 95.98 136.15 ASYT 1.25 1.1 0.91 0.40 12.75 13.41 128.49 ATRM 1.22 1.1 1.03 1.10 9.00 11.02 -6.49 BRKS 0.95 0.7 1.16 0.80 12.25 35.66 45.42 COHU 1.76 1.3 1.14 0.50 24.50 35.49 128.65 EGLS 1.23 1.2 1.44 1.30 12.31 2.20 10.52 ETEC 2.93 1.3 2.40 0.80 29.25 125.45 200.43 FSII 0.95 0.9 0.86 0.60 9.25 5.20 43.01 GGNS 0.44 0.4 0.28 0.20 1.25 10.82 40.45 GSNX 1.33 1.2 0.85 0.70 7.75 10.59 21.00 IPEC 1.31 1 0.96 0.60 10.25 30.57 60.56 KLAC 1.96 1.6 1.75 1.20 26.56 22.79 45.72 KLIC 1.08 1.1 0.61 0.40 14.25 -2.16 51.66 LRCX 1.34 0.9 0.68 0.40 20.50 49.07 69.98 MCHP 3.01 2.8 2.81 2.00 20.94 7.59 40.71 MTSN 1.19 1.2 0.97 1.00 5.50 -1.01 -3.17 NANO 2.48 0.2 1.79 0.10 8.31 1140.67 1691.49 NVLS 3.55 1.3 1.92 1.10 34.06 173.22 74.26 PRIA 2.47 1.1 1.40 1.00 15.94 124.63 40.05 RMTR 4.13 2 5.67 1.70 3.34 106.40 233.37 SFAM 1.02 1.3 1.35 0.60 18.75 -21.74 124.34 SMTL 1.32 1.5 0.57 0.50 8.13 -11.78 14.04 SVGI 0.88 0.8 0.72 0.50 16.06 9.78 43.86 TER 2.21 1 1.53 0.70 25.94 121.12 117.96 TGAL 0.89 0.8 1.01 0.70 4.00 11.36 43.58 UTEK 1.55 1.1 2.97 1.40 19.63 40.59 112.39 VECO 2.67 0.9 1.33 0.50 25.38 196.47 166.40 Min=5 yr min values (1996 in most cases) Data from Baseline&Market Guide F.