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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (13587)	6/20/1998 6:22:00 PM
From: D. Bryan	Respond to of 116753

Your point about the Nikkei turning higher this year is valid, but the Japanese Banks have an enormous amount of paper invested in that market and when the Nikkei drops below 15,000 the banking system goes into a crisis situation. This point, is as I understand it, is considered a level of insolvancy. That is why the US stepped in the other day to support the Yen, & in turn the Nikkei, because finacial markets get extremely concerned when it drops below 15,000. I think over the next few monthes you will see the market dripping below 15,000 now and again but the G7 nations will have to step in and support the Yen or World financial panic could become reality.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (13587)	6/21/1998 12:58:00 PM
From: PaulM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

George, FWIW, the Nikkei has wanted top go much lower for some time. It seems unreasonable to bet on a market which is artifcially pumped to rosy up bank books. It is also unreasonable to bet on a currency that iwould be plumetting by the day, but for central bank intervention. And remember that the yen was trading at over 200 to the dollar in the 80's. It may have a ways to go. Consider that Japanese banks--already burdened with huge amounts of bad debt--have the equivalent of 3 or 4 Mexico type crises to deal with in their backyard. A real rally in Japan is unlikely to materialize until the Nikkei has had a chance to go where it wanst to first. Which is to say, much lower. It will probably take global ecoomy with it. As for the U.S., contrary to conventional wisdom, its fundamentals aren't robust enough so that it can afford to be the global economic savior.