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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Myword who wrote (6900)	6/20/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

William, Here is just a few to get you started: techstocks.com quote.yahoo.com ragingbull.com daytraders.com forums.stockhouse.com stockselector.com growthcom.com equitytrader.com stockchat.com forums.iionline.com worth.com insiderwire.com

To: Mark Myword who wrote (6900)	6/20/1998 9:59:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Respond to of 164684

William, I'm sorry, another one. fool.com

To: Mark Myword who wrote (6900)	6/20/1998 10:43:00 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

<<<the incestuous gang of stock promoters who are fleecing the public with this ludicrous POS. I truly believe that in five or ten years, Amazon will be viewed as a classic example of duplicitous stock promotion in a market mania, leading to absurd price levels and billions lost by sucker investors.>>> If this is your understanding of why AMZN's market valuation is near $4 billion, I sincerely request that you & Felicia and some other bears who are so confident reassess the situation with an open mind. I fear you are missing some things here. I write this post for your benefit, not mine. Some very smart people on this thread have lost a lot of money shorting AMZN. I got overconfident last year and lost a huge sum of money on a different stock, DEPO. AMZN is anything but an easy or low-risk short, in my opinion. Here is what is wrong with the bearish position, IMHO. More likely than not, JMHO, online bookselling is going to liberate publishers from their current obligation to accept returns from bookstores at no charge. Imagine what this does to BKS and BGP business plans if they have to pay interest on the inventory they hold in their stores. Then add in my guesstimate of a shift of 20% of book sales in the next several years from land-based to on-line (or use your own estimate). What is left? BKS and BGP land-based stores will have a broken business plan--a nonviable business model, I think. They will lay off employees and close a lot of stores. Apparently Mr. Hugh Lamle has not though about how frail the BKS/BGP operations are in this regard? I find it ironic that I have posted this idea sporadically over the last four months and nobody has attempted to refute it. Other thing that impresses me, also not a new idea, is the strength of the Kleiner-Perkins keiretsu. They control more of the internet than any other entity. I have to believe that there are other internet stocks that are better shorts than AMZN. Please don't make the mistake of underestimating who and what you are up against when you are bearish on this stock. It is much more than an "incestuous gang of stock promoters". Listening to people who are ready to fight holy wars against AMZN, and the like, makes me worry that some people may lose a lot of money. I am long from near the beginning. Mentally I have a stop which is about $40, post-split. I keep my mental stop at about 50% of the highest price ever attained. I have not sold at $81 because I think there may be a couple more doublings left, over the next few years. Before everybody fires up their keyboards to flame me for such an outlandish prediction, I will remind the thread what happened here a couple months ago. These were presplit prices, of course. ************************************************ To: cellhigh (3043 ) From: doug doan Wednesday, Apr 15 1998 11:12AM ET Reply # 3044 of 6908 Anybody got a Pin? Looks like the balloon is about to pop. Today? tomorrow? Any guesses? My own target is for $8 share by years end. ********************************************* To: doug doan (3044 ) From: Tom D Wednesday, Apr 15 1998 11:46AM ET Reply # 3047 of 6908 We both have year-end targets. Mine is just like yours, only twenty times higher. Is this a great thread, or what. :>) Tom D ********************************************* To: Tom D (3047 ) From: doug doan Wednesday, Apr 15 1998 11:54AM ET Reply # 3048 of 6908 Ok Got you down for 160 per share on 31 Dec 1998. Anyone else? *********************************************** This posting which I am writing tonight is not about "I told you so". Its about pleading with both the bulls and bears to be financially prepared for the stock to double or for it to fall 50% in another 6-12 months. Its about appreciating the risk inherent in both positions. Good luck to all, both bulls and bears. Tom D