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To: dwight vickers who wrote (22815)6/21/1998 10:06:00 AM
From: Paul Fiondella  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42771
 
(OFF TOPIC) Japan, China, Clinton

Oh yes the Chinese were very definitely threatening to devalue their currency, no doubt about it. The Chinese are not subtle when they want something. I don't think Clinton had a choice. Or the choice was, let the Asian crisis bloom or sacrifice a few billion dollars of paper money to quiet the markets.

Keep in mind that the YEN never went back down to the 134 level where to use Ben's terminology, the maximum pain for the Japanese banks begins.

Asking the Japanese to reform would be like explaining to boss Tweed that if he didn't use better quality steel and oil in the cables of the Manhattan Bridge it would collapse in a hundred years. Not much motivation to get your hand out of the till today. The Ministry of Finance reform was stopped dead in its tracks, they sent the chief investigator to a new job somewhere in the Japanese boonies. It was getting to be a pain having to confiscate all of those neckties.

So who is going to select the banks for closure? They will self select. In other words only those about to go belly up will go through the Bridge bank and I think the Japanese may just allow a bank to fail completely without the Bridge to see what happens. Sort of like letting those S&L's perish without buying their assets. IN other words take a chance on a run on the banks. I wonder what type of insurance for deposits there is in Japan. In any case while the Japanese hardly need American instruction in these matters, they have a lot of learning to do and very soon.

The Asian crisis is hardly over, but other than a bank failure I don't see the speculators being allowed to bring it to a head. I am ignoring the noise in the press. Most of these press people haven't got a clue as to what Japan has already done and are talking absurdly about how it has to do something tomorrow. Try to get the US Congress to do something tomorrow. What idiots. Like it really happens that way.

Mr. President you have to take immediate action to end the Japanese recession. Which button do I press. That one. Right! All over. That is why I say that Rubin had better step up to the plate and set the tone with the press.