Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (10449)	6/21/1998 11:58:00 AM
From: Jenna	Respond to of 120523

Market Gems bulletin board is now up and running! marketgems.com Eventually it will be password protected but for the present it's free. The bulletin board will be metamorphosing into a bona fide real-time trading forum in the next weeks. I will be posting very frequent intraday updates on "watch lists" stocks from both the "General Watch List" and "Earnings Plays' Watch List, relevant strategies to help you determine the best picks, indicators to help determine 'growth stocks', changing trends in our watch list picks, turnaround plays, value stocks, safe vs. risky stocks, upgrades/downgrades, weekly analysts revisions of estimates. You in turn can post any picks you like, stock analyses, or any relevant stock market talk or start your own threads. On the Market Gems homepage is a link right to the bulletin board.. marketgems.com. I will be posting reminders on silicon investor for the next few days so eventually everyone of our 'regulars' or 'newbies' can post to the Market Gems board. Mostly this board is for 'our' stock watch lists as I'll be posting intraday updates there, more general articles will be posted on SI as well as answers to your posts on particular stocks

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (10449)	6/21/1998 2:09:00 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 120523

How to eliminate stocks that tank 30% or more from your trading portfolios...? Well that's impossible to totally eliminate them but you could give yourself the best odds that are possible. This is not only true with earnings plays but general watch lists and short term holds. Of course the rule of thumb is don't hold through earnings if there is any doubt. LOW, COST, and some of them are fairly safe if they are not OVERBOUGHT, but others like JBL, ORCL, COMS can be killers. I will probably trade COMS on Tuesday/Wednesday if I feel that there is an 'anticipatory upswing' like there was for JBL,DELL and even ORCL. I won't hold through earnings but I could get a nice pop nontheless. Some of the other ways to prevent 30% drops... 1) don't be too impressed with stocks that increase 100% or more in quarterly earnings.. If the stock is increases from 2 cents to 3 cents it's not that great. It's these stocks that are notorious for losing 30% or more if they fall short by one cent. Be more impressed with stocks that have 15% or more growth in the past 4-5 quarters. "Historical Earnings Performance" is more crucial than one good quarter. Then test to see if the earnings growth is from a core business of the company. 2) Be very aware of the analysts' upgrade/downgrade in earnings in the last 7 days. I used to watch 30 days but now I watch every 7 days. 3) Look at projected earnings into the next two quarter or years.. Analysts will have list of those projections.. 4) Look at the correlation coefficient. That shows the trend of the earnings growth in the past 4 or 8 or more quarters. When you track this indicator you will be able to notice some great turnaround quarters that are projected for your stocks. You should come up with a perfect 1 for earnings acceleration every single quarter. A .8 is good also. 5)Make sure the company has a great product. You'll need a great product to sustain growth once you have it. Make such they have a niche and nice percentage of the sales. Watch to see if the company has acquisitions, pending contracts, backlogs etc.. 6) Look for stocks that are relatively safe if you are about to hold through earnings or are holding for short periods. You can find if they are relatively safe by checking if they have beat estimates in the last 4 quarters, which shows consistency. You can also see if they are safe if earnings have increased consistently in the last 4 or more quarters (even years) and are PROJECTED to continue increasing. Here you will find the stocks like SUNW,CSCO, LU, WCOM,ERICY, etc. lately however the tech stocks are easily in the 'unsafe' category. I would apply these criteria to the sectors currently in favor (KBH,CCL,LEN etc.) Of course you have to check the market climate. Today its the Asian flu, so you'd want stocks that have 7) little or no exposure to Asia. That is why I often have many retail stocks on my lists as well as builders, and non-tech companies. 8) get out when the trend changes in your trade. Some of the strongest upward trends fizzle out. BBY, TOM, MTC, BGP,AEOS,BKE..all of these fine stocks have had strong upward trends, but when they end get out. You can always get back in again after a 'retreat'.. 9) Play stocks that have beat estimates in the last quarter. I keep a special permanent watch list of stocks that have beaten the quarter. Look at some of them like ISLI,ERTS, JDEC and notice how much they increase again and again when the market has it's up days or even choppy days.. You can't be 100% sure of course, but you will be a better informed trader if you follow those rules. jenna marketgems.com

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (10449)	6/21/1998 8:42:00 PM
From: opalapril	Respond to of 120523

>>Has anyone had the opportunity to dine at one of their concepts and would share his or her .02<< The one I've seen is definitely middle brow, which of course is not necessarily a bad thing unless you are a gourmand. It appears to cater mostly to business lunches and evening family fare with some young, first-time-out-on-a-date couples around the fringes. The food is good enough, but far from outstanding. Presentation is average. Locally, it has a public reputation for value which is somewhat undeserved. The large, family style salad bowl is a popular draw, especially for those who like iceberg lettuce with their iceberg lettuce. The consciously overdone dessert tray is ho-hum unless you're from Peoria. It's also rather expensive to sample. Drinks are fair. Service is so-so -- but where is it any better? On two visits I saw knots of self-absorbed waitrons gathered 'round the maitre d' stand, giggling like the post-teens they are, while diners patiently waited for help. Made me wonder if the manager was on vacation or had a stroke. Overall, on a 1/2 (Arby's) to 10 (Four Season's) scale I'd rate Landry's a 3 1/2. For comparison's sake, I give Red Lobster a 2. Landry's is a chain, to be sure, but somehow it manages to avoid the cookie cutter chain aura.