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To: mauser96 who wrote (18201)	6/21/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: neverenough	Respond to of 25960

Sematech: 15 more DRAM fabs than are needed By J. Robert Lineback SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- The semiconductor industry currently has about 15 more 200-mm DRAM fabs than it needs to adequately serve worldwide memory demand, according to a simulation model disclosed here during the Third Annual 300-mm Symposium. The glut of DRAM fabs is not only driving down memory prices but it is also playing a key factor in delaying the industry's transition to larger 300-mm wafers, according to Randy Goodall, associated director of productivity and infrastructure in Sematech's International 300-mm Initiative (I300I). To gauge worldwide production capacity, Sematech has created a simulation model that takes into account die shrinks and the industry's accelerated move to new process technologies in 200-mm wafer fabs. Using the model, the consortium has concluded that 25 to 26 DRAM fabs--processing 200-mm wafers--are now needed to serve worldwide demand, said Goodall, who spoke before the meeting, hosted by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group. Austin, Tex.-based Sematech believes eighty 200-mm wafer fabs are in various states of operation worldwide with, about half producing DRAMs, he said The current outlook suggests that 256-Mbit DRAM production will start on 200-mm wafers but the memory generation is expected to be switched over to 300-mm fab lines when 0.15- or 0.13-micron technology is used in the next four or five years. Historically, wafer-diameter transitions have been led by DRAMs, but too much memory capacity is now delaying any serious interest in 300-mm volume production, according to industry analysts and managers. Meanwhile, logic and microprocessor manufacturers are placing more of their emphasis on process shrinks to gain higher performance, which bring higher prices in the marketplace. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------