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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3628)	6/21/1998 1:09:00 PM
From: TokyoMex	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9523

Viagra works ! It's a wonderful stuff,,

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3628)	6/21/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! Happy PFather's Day!! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ The Peabody Report: 6/21/98 Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: PFE reached a pending Peabody Peak of 114.94 on June 18,1998 and is still headed higher to a new Peabody Peak of 119.75 by July 15, 1998. Commentary PFE reached the pending Peabody Peak on both Thursday and Friday. The June 1st Valley of 100.38 is officially confirmed. Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys. ......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days .....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (6/19/98)......From Today Last Peabody Valley: .... 6/01/98 ....100.38.......... -10.0% .................-20 Last Peabody Peak:..... 6/18/98......114.94..........+3.1% .................-3 Pending Forecasted Next Peak ......7/15/98......119.75..........+7.4%............... 24 Forecasted Next Valley....................... 102.00 (If Model is Wrong) ______________________________________________ Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (6/1398): PFE: 109.31; DJ: 8,835: PFE should be in a trading range of 104-115 until earnings are released and/or Zeldox is approved. Viagra New Rxs for the week of 6/5/98 will be effected by the 4,000 urologists at the AUA meeting during that week. Bottom line: PFE should track the general market this week and will head to the peak in about a month. Any large dip will be a buying opportunity. Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: Here is how PFE tracked versus the general market last week: ..........................................................Dow..........PFE .....................................Monday.........-207..........-1.00 ......................................Tuesday.........+37.........+1.31 ......................................Wednesday....+164........+2.38 ......................................Thursday.........-16..........+2.19 .......................................Friday..........-100...........-2.75 Correlation between PFE and Dow last week was +0.75. Thumbs Up! Peabody PForecast Record (66 weeks): 42-23 (64%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (6/21/98): PFE: 11.50; DJ: 8,713: Short-term pressure due to the Zeldox non-approval will be countered by late June portfolio window-dressing, anticipation of second quarter earnings and growing Viagra Rxs (?). Decline on Monday am followed by gains at the end of the week. ___________________________________________ Peabody Portfolio Total return: +94.2% PFE @ 111.50 Annualized return: +89.6% During the second quarter, 1998, the Peabody Portfolio has added 800 PFE shares to the mythical Peabody Portfolio. The Peabody Portfolio consists of Mr. Peabody's 18 aggressive PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996 . To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,400 PFE shares at an average price of $59.98 (only 3.5% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 3,400 Average Price of Purchases:....... $59.98 Total Costs: ...............................$195,238 Total Market Value:.....................$379,100 Total Potential Profit:...................$183,863 Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200 ..........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 Total:............3,400...........$59.98 ____________________________________________ Suggested PFE Buying Levels The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The aggressive buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time: Aggressive PFE buying levels:..................$100 to $102 Conservative PFE buying levels: ...............$95 to $99 ________________________________________ Future Actions That Will Effect PFE Trends Viagra Rx and sales trends:.................... Every Monday throughout 1998 News of Viagra adverse reactions and drug interactions: .............................Throughout 1998 FDA re-review of Zeldox: ......................... July, 1998 2nd Qt PFE earnings:...............................July 15, 1998 Launch of Zeldox:.....................................1999 European approval of Viagra:......................September, 1998 PFE R&D Meeting.....................................October 29, 1998 ED news in the media: .............................Throughout 1998 _______________________________________________ Peabody V-Files Analysts' estimates of Viagra 1998 sales average $576 million, a 51% increase over the original estimates made prior to approval. At the current specification rate, it is estimated that Viagra is selling at a rate of $90 million per month. Accordingly, a conservative 1998 Viagra sales forecast is $810 million. ..............................Current......... Original ..............................1998 Est.......1998 Est ..............................(Billions)........(Billions)....Comments Gruntal....................$1.000.......................Peak annual sales of $4.5 B Everen.......................$0.850......................$1.4 B (1999) Mehta Partners..........$0.800 Nation Banc .............$0.800......$0.400......$1.9M in 99,Up to $6B in peak year Salomen Smith Barney* $0.655...................$2.1 B (1999), $5.750 B (2002) Schroder...................$0.635.....................$1.2 B (1999),$3B (2002) Merrill Lynch.............$0.625.....$0.350.......$1.3 B ( 1999) Bear Stearns.............$0.600.... $0.400........$1.2 B (1999) PaineWebber.............$0.600......$0.600........$1.2 B (1999) HKS & Co .................$0.500.....$0.500........Estimate will be grossly revised Standard & Poor's.......$0.400.....$0.400........$3.0 B by 2002 Hambrecht & Quist.....$0.345.....$0.345........ $.700 B (1999) Deutsche Morgan........$0.300.....$0.300 Gerard Klauer............. $0.300....$0.300...........$788 M (1999) AG Edwards................$0.225....$0.225............. Reaching $1.0 B in 3-4 years Morgan Stanley.................................................$3-5 B (Peak) OrbiMed............................................................$1 B by 2002 ABN-AMBRO......................................................$1.8 B (2001) Americal...........................................................$10 B over 5 years Cowen..............................................................$2.5 B +(2001) Goldman Sachs ...............................................$1.5 B by 1999 Average......................$0.576......$0.382.....+50.7% Revised original estimate _________________________ PFE Stock Splits PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE has announced a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, management stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, the next PFE split will be 3-1 in the Fall, 1998 or March, 1999. ________________________________________________